Match Analysis: Bahia vs Grêmio – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
Game Overview
Bahia hosts Grêmio in a Brasileirão Série A late-season clash with Bahia positioned 6th and Grêmio 11th in the table. Bahia has strong home form, losing only once in 13 home games, while Grêmio struggles on the road with just 3 wins in 14 away matches this season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bahia has shown solid home performance with a record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss in 13 home games. Grêmio's away form is subpar with only 3 wins out of 14. Bahia also has a slightly better overall record and positive goal difference (+3) compared to Grêmio's negative (-3).
- Recent head-to-head data suggests a competitive matchup but Bahia has a slight edge in form and consistency at home against Grêmio historically.
- No major absences reported for either team impacting starting lineups or key positions significantly.
- The match being at Bahia’s home ground, Arena Fonte Nova, with a strong crowd backing, plus Grêmio’s travel fatigue as an away side, favors Bahia.
- Bahia is motivated to consolidate their position in the top 6 for potential upper table/continental qualification, whereas Grêmio’s mid-table position reduces pressure but also urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | home: -146, away: 400, draw: 270 | Bahia | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Spread | Bahia_-0.75: -112, Gremio_+75: -108 | Bahia -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | over_2.5: +105, under_2.5: -125 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bahia -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bahia moneyline
Predicted Score: 1-0