Match Analysis: Internacional vs Sport Recife – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Beira-Rio, Porto Alegre
Game Overview
Internacional, sitting 15th with 32 points, hosts bottom-placed Sport Recife, who have earned 17 points in 27 games. Internacional's home form is mixed but stronger than Sport Recife's winless away record, making the home side clear favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- Internacional have six home wins, three draws, and five losses this season, showing inconsistency but better performance than Sport Recife, who remain winless in away games and are struggling offensively and defensively.
- Recent head-to-head matches favor Internacional, who have secured wins and draws against Sport Recife, with the visitors rarely able to claim points at Beira-Rio.
- No major injury concerns reported for either side that would significantly impact the starting line-ups or tactical setups.
- Playing at home gives Internacional a strong advantage with local fan support and familiar conditions; no extreme weather or travel disruptions expected.
- Internacional is motivated to climb the table to avoid relegation, while Sport Recife is fighting to escape the bottom but clearly struggling, reducing their ability to perform at a high level.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Internacional: -160, Sport Recife: +440, Draw: +280 | Internacional | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Internacional -0.75: -120, Sport Recife +75: +100 | Internacional -0.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5: +105, Under 2.5: -125 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Internacional -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Internacional to win the match outright with a moderately confident margin, and a likely low-scoring game under 2.5 goals considering defensive caution from Internacional.
Predicted Score: 2-0
