Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Sao Paulo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Not specified (Mirassol at home)
Game Overview
Mirassol, currently 4th in Serie A, hosts 8th-placed Sao Paulo in a tightly contested match with strong home side momentum and contrasting recent head-to-head results.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol is in excellent form (13W-10D-5L, +17 GD), while Sao Paulo (10W-8D-9L, +3 GD) is inconsistent, especially away. Mirassol's home record is notably impressive.
- Last meeting on May 24, 2025, Mirassol shocked Sao Paulo 2-0 at Morumbi, despite Sao Paulo being favored. This suggests a shift in the competitive balance between the clubs.
- No recent injury news provided in available sources — fitness is assumed to be near full for both sides pending further updates.
- No external disruptions reported (e.g., weather, crowd); home-field advantage likely a factor for Mirassol.
- Mirassol is chasing a top-4 finish and qualification for Copa Libertadores. Sao Paulo is mid-table, likely already focused on next season, which could affect intensity.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol: +134, Sao Paulo: +225, Draw: +200 | Mirassol | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Mirassol -0.25 (+100), Sao Paulo +25 (-120) | Mirassol -0.25 (pick 'em, half-win on draw) | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Over/under | Over 2 (-118), Under 2 (-102) | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol 17% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mirassol at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mirassol maintains home superiority, leveraging form and motivation to secure a narrow victory.
Predicted Score: 1-0 Mirassol