Match Analysis: Toulouse vs Metz – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 3:15 PM UTC
- Location: Stadium de Toulouse
Game Overview
Toulouse faces Metz in Ligue 1 at home, with Toulouse favored by the bookmakers to win and the goal total set at 2.5, suggesting a moderate-scoring game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toulouse has been stronger in recent form, with key attackers like Thijs Dallinga (5 goals in 16 games), Frank Magri, and Zakaria Aboukhlal contributing. Metz's attack is less prolific, led by Georges Mikautadze (3 goals) and Joel Asoro (14 games, 1 assist, 1 goal). Toulouse's attacking output, even offset by some inconsistency, still surpasses Metz's defense, which has struggled against better-attacking sides.
- Recent H2H history is not detailed in the sources, but bookmaker probabilities have previously favored Toulouse in both home and away matchups, suggesting a trend of Toulouse's dominance.
- No major injuries reported in the provided sources; lineup integrity for both sides is assumed.
- No unusual weather or pitch conditions are reported. Toulouse, playing at home, benefits from a supportive crowd, which is often reflected in Ligue 1 home performance.
- Both teams are likely motivated to climb the table, but Toulouse's stronger attacking profile and home advantage suggest higher motivation to secure a win.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Toulouse -172, Draw 300, Metz 450 | Toulouse | β β β β β 76% |
Spread | Toulouse -1 (105), Metz +1 (-125) | Toulouse -1 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 (-112), Under 2.5 (-108) | Over 2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toulouse -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toulouse should win by a margin of 1-2 goals, with both sides likely to score but Toulouse having more quality in the final third.
Predicted Score: Toulouse 2-1 Metz