Match Analysis: Elche CF vs Athletic Bilbao – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-19
- Time: 12:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
Game Overview
Elche CF, currently with a 1-0 form in their last 5 matches but an impressive 5-0 ATS record in that span, especially strong on the road (3-1 ATS), hosts Athletic Bilbao who present a solid lineup and are favored by bookmakers despite Elche's resilience.
Key Factors to Consider
- Elche has struggled for wins recently but excels against the spread, showing defensive discipline and resilience. Athletic Bilbao has a better overall recent form and is favored to win outright.
- Athletic Bilbao has slight edge historically and is favored in betting markets (approx. 44% implied win probability vs 28% for Elche), but Elche’s strong ATS performance suggests competitiveness.
- No significant injury reports affecting key players for either team were found, indicating both sides likely at near full strength.
- The match takes place in Elche's home venue, which usually benefits them defensively; public betting leans heavily toward Elche ATS, showing market respect for their defensive style.
- Both teams are motivated with Athletic Bilbao looking to maintain top-table form and Elche aiming to capitalize on home advantage and recent ATS momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Athletic Bilbao: 111, Elche CF: 280, Draw: 236 | Athletic Bilbao | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Spread | Athletic Bilbao -0.25: -126, Elche CF +25: 106 | Elche CF +0.25 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: 101, Under 2.25: -121 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Athletic Bilbao -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Athletic Bilbao moneyline win, Elche +0.25 spread, Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: Athletic Bilbao 1 – 0 Elche CF