Match Analysis: Auburn Tigers vs Missouri Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 11:45 PM UTC
- Location: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Game Overview
No. 16 Missouri (5-1) faces Auburn (3-3) in a defensive battle between SEC Tigers. Missouri boasts the 16th-ranked scoring defense and a dynamic rushing attack led by Ahmad Hardy, but struggled last week against Alabama. Auburn, with the 18th-ranked scoring defense and a stout run D, is always tough at home. Both teams are coming off losses to top-tier SEC opponents.
Key Factors to Consider
- Missouriβs offense was stagnant against Alabama, with star RB Hardy held under 100 yards for the first time this season. Auburnβs defense is particularly strong against the run, which could further limit Missouriβs ground game. Auburnβs offense, however, has lacked explosiveness, scoring just 10 points last week. Both defenses are elite, but Missouriβs offense has shown more firepower overall.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but both teams have strong defenses and have struggled against the spread in close games this season. Home-field advantage has historically been significant at Jordan-Hare.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Both squads appear to be near full strength for this matchup.
- Game is being played at Auburnβs home turf, where crowd noise and home energy can be a major factor in close contests. Weather does not appear to be a significant issue at this time.
- Missouri must rebound after a tough loss to avoid dropping out of the top 20; Auburn is looking to get back to .500 and needs a signature win. Both teams are motivated, but Missouri has more at stake in terms of national ranking and bowl positioning.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Auburn +102 | Missouri -122 | Missouri Tigers | β β β ββ 58% |
Spread | Auburn +1.5 -110 | Missouri -1.5 -110 | Missouri Tigers -1.5 | β β β ββ 54% |
Over/under | Over 43.5 -115 | Under 43.5 -105 | Under 43.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Missouri Tigers -5% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 43.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 43.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
A low-scoring, defensively dominated game where Missouriβs slightly more consistent offense and red-zone efficiency make the difference in a tight road win.
Predicted Score: Missouri 17, Auburn 13