Match Analysis: Iowa Hawkeyes vs Penn State Nittany Lions – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
Game Overview
The Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2) host the Penn State Nittany Lions (3-3) in a Big Ten conference matchup. Iowa is slight favorite with home advantage, both teams show strong pass defenses, but Iowa is coming off a dominant 37-0 win while Penn State narrowly lost last game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa (4-2) has been stronger this season including a recent 37-0 shutout; Penn State (3-3) has struggled with consistency and holds a 0-6 ATS record this season.
- Historical data favors Iowa slightly, with the team showing better performance home and against Penn State recently.
- No significant injuries reported for either team impacting key starters.
- Game played at Iowaβs home field, Kinnick Stadium, giving Hawkeyes a familiar environment and home crowd advantage.
- Iowa is motivated to maintain strong Big Ten position post shutout win; Penn State aims to stop losing streak but has shown inconsistent effort.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Iowa -146, Penn State +124 | Iowa | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Iowa -2.5 -118, Penn State +2.5 -104 | Iowa -2.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Over/under | Over 40.5 -110, Under 40.5 -110 | Under 40.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes 1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 40.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 40.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Favor Iowa to win outright and cover the 2.5 point spread; expect total points to stay just under the 40.5 line due to strong defensive units.
Predicted Score: Iowa 24, Penn State 14