Match Analysis: North Texas Mean Green vs UTSA Roadrunners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: DATCU Stadium
Game Overview
AAC conference clash between North Texas Mean Green (5-1, 1-1 AAC) and UTSA Roadrunners (3-3, 1-1 AAC). North Texas is the favorite at home, coming off a heavy loss to South Florida, while UTSA rides momentum after a dominant win over Rice. The over/under is set high, reflecting both teams' explosive offensive potential.
Key Factors to Consider
- North Texas has a stronger overall record (5-1) but was just blown out at home, raising questions about vulnerability. UTSA is inconsistent but capable of explosive performances, especially after a 61-13 win. North Texas' defense showed major flaws in their last outing, but their offense remains potent.
- UTSA has won 5 of the last 7 meetings, including a 48-27 victory in their most recent matchup, suggesting psychological edge and matchup familiarity[1]. Most games in this series have been high-scoring.
- No major injury news reported in available sources. Both teams appear to have full squads.
- Home field advantage for North Texas, but crowd impact may be muted following their recent blowout loss. Weather forecast not available, but no issues reported.
- Both teams are 1-1 in the AAC and competing for bowl eligibility. North Texas must rebound from a harsh loss, while UTSA seeks to build on momentum and continue their H2H dominance.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | North Texas -174, UTSA +146 | UTSA Roadrunners moneyline (+146) | β β β ββ 60% |
Spread | North Texas -3.5 (-115), UTSA +3.5 (-105) | UTSA Roadrunners +3.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 66.5 (-105), Under 66.5 (-115) | Over 66.5 (-105) | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners 28% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 66.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: UTSA Roadrunners at 28% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Expect a high-scoring, competitive game. North Texas is slightly favored by the market, but UTSA's recent form and head-to-head success make them a live underdog. The total is set aggressively high, but both defenses have shown susceptibility to big plays.
Predicted Score: North Texas 35, UTSA 38