Match Analysis: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 1:30 PM UTC
- Location: Mewa Arena, Mainz, Germany
Game Overview
FSV Mainz 05 hosts Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga clash where Mainz struggles at home and is currently in relegation zone form, while Leverkusen is in better shape with recent wins and overall stronger squad performance.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mainz 05 has lost all three home games this season, with zero goals scored at the Mewa Arena and only 5 goals in 6 matches, while Bayer Leverkusen is on an unbeaten streak, having recently secured back-to-back wins with strong possession and shot statistics.
- In the past 35 matches, Bayer Leverkusen leads with 19 wins to Mainz's 10, with 6 draws. Last season, Leverkusen won 1-0 at home and drew 2-2 away at Mainz.
- No major injury reports affecting key starters for either side were noted in available previews, indicating both teams likely approaching full strength.
- Leverkusen, after a two-week break and ahead of an important PSG match, will be motivated to secure a league win; Mainz faces pressure to break out of a scoring drought at home to avoid management unrest.
- Mainz is desperate to stop their home skid and climb out of the relegation zone, but recent heavy losses impact morale, while Bayer Leverkusen's confidence is buoyed by recent victories and maintaining momentum is critical for their Champions League ambitions.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | FSV Mainz 05 +183, Bayer Leverkusen +156, Draw +244 | Bayer Leverkusen | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Bayer Leverkusen 0 -122, FSV Mainz 05 0 +102 | Bayer Leverkusen 0 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2.75 -101, Under 2.75 -119 | Over 2.75 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Bayer Leverkusen 23% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.75 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.75 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 23.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen to win outright, with a probable high-scoring game favoring Leverkusen's slight superiority and Mainz's home offensive struggles.
Predicted Score: 1-2