Match Analysis: Sevilla vs Mallorca – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 12:00 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla
Game Overview
Sevilla hosts Mallorca in a key La Liga encounter. Sevilla, rejuvenated under Matias Almeyda, are pushing for Europe, while Mallorca languish at the foot of the table, winless in their last five away games.
Key Factors to Consider
- Sevilla are in strong form: two consecutive league wins (including a 4-1 thrashing of Barcelona), sitting 6th, and scoring goals at a high rate (15 in 8 matches). Mallorca have had a dismal start, losing four straight road games and struggling to create chances (only 2 shots on target last away game).
- Sevilla are unbeaten in their last five home games vs Mallorca, who last won in Seville in 2010. Recent meetings have been tight, but Sevilla have the clear historical edge. Under 2.5 goals has occurred in 9 of the last 10 head-to-heads.
- No significant injury updates from top sources. Potential missing players could sway odds if announced closer to kickoff.
- Sevilla’s home crowd and momentum from recent big win are clear assets. Mallorca’s low morale and poor away record are major liabilities.
- Sevilla are pushing for European spots and have serious momentum. Mallorca need a turnaround to avoid being cut adrift in the relegation zone.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Sevilla -116, Mallorca +376, Draw +247 | Sevilla | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Sevilla -0.5 (-116), Mallorca +50 (-104) | Sevilla -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 (-108), Under 2.25 (-112) | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Sevilla 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sevilla should control play and are heavily favored on form, H2H, and venue. However, their defense remains vulnerable, and Mallorca could park the bus, keeping it tighter than the moneyline suggests.
Predicted Score: 2-0 Sevilla