Match Analysis: Detroit Red Wings vs Tampa Bay Lightning – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-17
- Time: 11:10 PM UTC
- Location: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Detroit Red Wings for an NHL matchup. Tampa Bay is favored on the moneyline and puck line despite recent struggles in night games, while Detroit has a strong home underdog record and is performing well early in the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit Red Wings have started 3-1-0 showing solid form at home, while Tampa Bay Lightning have a 1-2-1 record but remain offensively potent, ranking 1st in goals scored per game and possessing a top-5 power play.
- Tampa Bay has historically done well against Detroit, especially on the power play where Detroit's penalty kill is just middle-of-the-pack this season after a poor prior year. Recent night games have favored Detroit at home, but Tampa Bay has covered recent puck lines against teams on winning streaks.
- No major injuries reported that significantly impact either team's core players in this game.
- The game is at Detroit's home arena. The Lightning are traveling and have had poor results in night games recently, losing their last eight night matchups.
- Detroitβs motivation is high as underdogs at home with a strong recent record in this role, while Tampa Bay aims to bounce back from inconsistent starts and leverage their potent power play against Detroitβs average penalty kill.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Red Wings +130, Tampa Bay Lightning -155 | Tampa Bay Lightning | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Detroit Red Wings +1.5 -192, Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 +160 | Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 6.5 +105, Under 6.5 -125 | Over 6.5 goals | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 6.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 6.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tampa Bay Lightning to win outright on the moneyline, cover the -1.5 puck line, and the game to go over 6.5 total goals.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Lightning 4 – 2 Detroit Red Wings