Match Analysis: Palmeiras vs Bragantino-SP - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-15
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Allianz Parque, São Paulo, Brazil
Game Overview
Matchday 28 of the Brazilian Campeonato Serie A sees league leaders Palmeiras host mid-table Bragantino-SP. Palmeiras are in dominant form, while Bragantino-SP have been inconsistent and recently unspectacular on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Palmeiras are 1st with 55 points after 25 matches, sporting a 17-4-4 record and a +21 goal difference. Bragantino-SP are 9th with 36 points from 27 games (10-6-11, -5 GD). Palmeiras have 73% win probability (Wincomparator algorithm), while Bragantino-SP are given just 5.6% chance to win away[7]. Palmeiras are on a five-match unbeaten run, while Bragantino-SP lost four of their last six away league matches.
- Recent H2H favors Palmeiras, who have won the last three Serie A encounters and have not lost to Bragantino-SP in the last five league meetings. Palmeiras also have a superior home record.
- No major injuries reported for either side in latest available info.
- No significant weather or venue concerns noted. Palmeiras have strong home support.
- Palmeiras are pushing to secure the league title, while Bragantino-SP, comfortably mid-table, may lack the same urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Palmeiras -287, Bragantino-SP 768, Draw 415 | Palmeiras | ★★★★☆ 83% |
Spread | Palmeiras -1.25 (-115), Bragantino-SP +1.25 (-105) | Palmeiras -1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.5 (-122), Under 2.5 (+102) | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Palmeiras -2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.5 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Palmeiras to control the match and win comfortably, likely covering the spread, but goals may be limited by Bragantino-SP's defensive approach.
Predicted Score: 2-0 Palmeiras
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