Match Analysis: South Alabama Jaguars vs Arkansas State Red Wolves - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-14
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
Game Overview
South Alabama Jaguars host Arkansas State Red Wolves in a Sun Belt matchup where South Alabama is slight favorite despite a poor 1-5 record, while Arkansas State holds a 2-4 record. Both teams are struggling but South Alabama has home advantage and is favored by sportsbooks to cover a moderate spread.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Alabama is 1-5 overall, recently lost to Troy 31-24, showing challenges in winning but has a decent offense that can put up points at home. Arkansas State is 2-4, with a recent close 31-30 win over Texas State, indicating capability to score but defensive lapses too.
- Recent H2H data is limited but both Sun Belt teams have had competitive games. Previous meetings have been moderately close, favoring defensive and moderately scoring games.
- Arkansas State missing TE Tyler Little (significant for red zone targets). South Alabama reportedly has no major injuries impacting key starters defensive or offensive skill positions.
- Game is played at South Alabamaβs home stadium, enhancing crowd support. Weather and other external factors expected to be neutral with no weather-related impacts.
- South Alabama seeks a second win to break a losing streak and gain momentum on home turf. Arkansas State wants to build on their recent close win but is on the road with injury concerns, possibly limiting motivation slightly.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | South Alabama: -295, Arkansas State: +240 | South Alabama Moneyline | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | South Alabama: -7.5 -110, Arkansas State: +7.5 -110 | South Alabama -7.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over: 58.5 -110, Under: 58.5 -110 | Over 58.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars 121% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 58.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: South Alabama Jaguars at 121% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 50.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
South Alabama to win moneyline and cover the -7.5 spread, and the game to go over 58.5 points
Predicted Score: South Alabama 35, Arkansas State 24
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