Match Analysis: Liberty Flames vs New Mexico State Aggies - Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-14
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA
Game Overview
The Liberty Flames (2-4) host the New Mexico State Aggies (3-2) in a mid-October NCAA Football matchup. Liberty is favored heavily with home advantage and a better defensive profile, while New Mexico State comes in with a superior record and some key players healthy and ready.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico State has a 3-2 record, showing better recent form and more consistent play than Liberty, who is 2-4 with a losing trend. Liberty's defense has been solid, holding opponents under 20 points recently, while their offense has struggled to score.
- Recent head-to-head information is limited, but Liberty has historically had a home-field edge. No recent games available to significantly favor one side based on this factor.
- New Mexico Stateβs RB Dijon Stanley is healthy following a concussion, and WR Donovan Faupel is active, which improves their offensive potential. Liberty has no reported key injuries impacting this game.
- Clear weather conditions expected at Williams Stadium with no rain and mild temperatures around 68Β°F, which favors a normal style of play. Home crowd support favors Liberty.
- Liberty is motivated to improve their losing record and protect home turf. New Mexico State aims to continue their winning momentum and potentially secure a bowl-eligible season.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Liberty Flames: -450, New Mexico State Aggies: +350 | Liberty Flames | β β β β β 75% |
Spread | Liberty Flames -11.5 (-110), New Mexico State Aggies +11.5 (-110) | Liberty Flames -11.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Over/under | Over 48.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Liberty Flames -7% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 48.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 48.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liberty Flames to win straight up covering the spread and the game total to go under.
Predicted Score: Liberty Flames 27 - New Mexico State Aggies 17
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