Match Analysis: Portland Pilots vs Long Beach St 49ers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Chiles Center, Portland, OR
Game Overview
The Portland Pilots host the Long Beach State 49ers in a non-conference NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Portland enters as clear favorites, boasting a superior record and strong home form, while Long Beach State struggles with a poor road record and offensive inefficiency. The game is set for a prime-time slot with national streaming coverage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Portland Pilots (4-3) have shown solid offensive production, averaging 82.1 points per game and ranking in the top 35 nationally in assists. They are 6-0 in night games at home this season. Long Beach State (1-5) ranks 327th in scoring (68.7 PPG), 311th in field goal percentage (41.8%), and 271st in three-point shooting (31.0%). They have lost 10 consecutive road games and have been outscored by 13.4 points per game compared to Portland.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but Portland has dominated recent matchups, winning 5 of the last 6 meetings. Portland's home advantage and superior team metrics suggest continued dominance in this matchup.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- Portland enjoys a strong home-court advantage at the Chiles Center, where they have won all six night games this season. Long Beach State's poor road performance and defensive struggles (allowing 73.7 PPG, 190th nationally) are major concerns.
- Portland is motivated to build momentum early in the season and maintain their home dominance. Long Beach State seeks to end a lengthy road losing streak and improve their offensive efficiency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Portland Pilots: -225, Long Beach St 49ers: 185 | Portland Pilots | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Portland Pilots: -4.5 -115, Long Beach St 49ers: +4.5 -105 | Portland Pilots -4.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | over: 149.5 -110, under: 149.5 -110 | Over 149.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Portland Pilots -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 149.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 149.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Portland Pilots are strongly favored to win this matchup due to their superior offensive production, home-court advantage, and Long Beach State's poor road record and offensive struggles. The value lies in Portland covering the spread and the game going over the total.
Predicted Score: Portland Pilots 82 – Long Beach State 49ers 68