Match Analysis: Saint Mary's Gaels vs Wichita St Shockers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Imperial Arena, Nassau
Game Overview
The Saint Mary's Gaels, undefeated at 6-0 and boasting strong offensive and defensive efficiency, host Wichita State Shockers, who have a solid 4-1 record. Saint Mary's is favored heavily with a moneyline of -675 and a 10.5 point spread, reflecting their dominance, while Wichita State is given a +10.5 spread and underdog moneyline odds of +490. The over/under is set at 138.5 points. Saint Mary's has a stronger defense, limiting opponents to 57.8 points per game, and efficient offense shooting 50% from the field, contrasting with Wichita State’s notable scoring ability but less consistent defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Saint Mary's is undefeated 6-0 with a formidable defense ranked 5th in points allowed per game (57.8) and allows only 35.8% field goal shooting. Offensively, they shoot 50% from the floor and 79.1% from free throws. Wichita State holds a 4-1 record, scoring 81.8 points per game but allowing 62.8 points. Wichita State shoots 45.4% from the field and 38.8% from three-point range, with weaker passing statistics compared to Saint Mary's.
- Saint Mary's has won 15 of its last 16 games versus non-ranked opponents, indicating dominance over teams of Wichita State's caliber. Both teams have limited direct recent encounters, but Saint Mary’s superior record and stats highlight their edge.
- No major injuries reported for Saint Mary's or Wichita State impacting this matchup as of current information. Some players on redshirt status may not be affecting the lineups significantly.
- The game is played at Saint Mary's home venue, giving the Gaels a home-court advantage. Public betting heavily favors Saint Mary's, with 100% public bets on them currently and strong money backing.
- Saint Mary's aims to extend their perfect start to the season and continue home dominance. Wichita State seeks to prove competitiveness and avoid a heavy loss against a top conference team.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Saint Mary's: -675, Wichita State: 490 | Saint Mary's Gaels | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Saint Mary's: -10.5 -115, Wichita State: +10.5 -105 | Wichita State +10.5 to cover | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 138.5 -105, Under: 138.5 -115 | Over 138.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Saint Mary's Gaels -14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 138.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 138.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Saint Mary's Gaels to win and cover the -10.5 spread, with a predicted tight game where Wichita State keeps the margin respectable but ultimately falls short.
Predicted Score: Saint Mary's Gaels 75, Wichita State Shockers 67
