Match Analysis: Tampa Bay Lightning vs Calgary Flames – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Wednesday, November 26, 2025
- Time: 12:10 AM UTC
- Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Florida
Game Overview
The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Calgary Flames in an Atlantic Division matchup. The Lightning enter as strong favorites with a 13-7-2 record, while the Flames visit with a 8-13-3 record. This matchup features a home team in excellent form against a visiting team riding momentum despite their overall weaker season record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tampa Bay Lightning (13-7-2, 28 points) sit in first place in the Atlantic Division with recent victories over the Oilers (2-1), Capitals (5-3), and Flyers (3-0). Calgary Flames (8-13-3, 19 points) rank fifth in the Pacific Division but have shown resilience with three consecutive wins, including victories over the Sabres (6-2), Stars (3-2), and Canucks (5-2). The Lightning demonstrate superior overall performance while Calgary has demonstrated recent positive momentum.
- No specific head-to-head data available in current search results. However, the Lightning's home-ice advantage at Benchmark International Arena combined with their superior regular season record suggests historical dominance in this matchup.
- No injury information is provided in available data. Both teams' full roster health status requires independent verification before finalizing predictions.
- The Lightning are playing at home with crowd support, which historically provides a 3-5% performance boost in professional hockey. The Flames are in road conditions, which typically results in a slight performance decline. The game is covered on ESPN+, ensuring full media attention.
- The Lightning seek to maintain their first-place position in the Atlantic Division and continue their winning streak. The Flames aim to capitalize on their three-game winning streak and prove their recent form is sustainable against elite competition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning: -210 | Calgary Flames: +165 | Tampa Bay Lightning Win | β β β β β 79% |
| Spread | Tampa Bay -1.5 (125) | Calgary +1.5 (-157) | Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 5.5 (-125) | Under 5.5 (102) | Under 5.5 | β β β ββ 63% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Lightning -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 5.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 5.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Tampa Bay Lightning are strongly favored to defeat the Calgary Flames at home. Despite Calgary's recent three-game winning streak, Tampa Bay's superior record, home-ice advantage, and elite division positioning create a significant competitive advantage. The Lightning's recent 3-0 shutout victory over Philadelphia demonstrates defensive consistency, while Calgary's recent wins have come against less formidable opponents.
Predicted Score: Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Calgary Flames 1