Match Analysis: Air Force Falcons vs N Colorado Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Clune Arena, Colorado Springs, CO
Game Overview
The Air Force Falcons host the Northern Colorado Bears in an NCAA Men's Basketball game. The Falcons hold a 3-4 overall record and have a 3-3 home record, while Northern Colorado enters with a strong 5-1 record and unbeaten 2-0 away from home. Recent form favors Northern Colorado, highlighted by a 97-93 win against CSU Fullerton with standout 32-point performance from Zack Bloch. The game is expected to be competitive, with Northern Colorado listed as slight favorites.
Key Factors to Consider
- Northern Colorado averages 89.2 points per game, ranking 1st in the Big Sky, and maintains strong offensive efficiency. Their leading players include Quinn Denker (18.0 PPG) and Zack Bloch (15.0 PPG). Air Force averages lower scoring output with 70.1 points per game and has struggled with a 3-4 record, but has improved recently with a 98-85 win over IUI. Air Force tends to have a high turnover rate (14.0 per game) but is successful when winning the turnover battle.
- Recent head-to-head results show competitive matchups but are limited in number. No explicit recent direct results found, indicating possibly infrequent meetings. The northern Colorado Bears showed recent stronger form in matchups leading into this game.
- No significant injury reports available or highlighted impacting either team for this match.
- The game is played at Air Force's home court, Clune Arena, possibly conferring home advantage. Northern Colorado's strong travel record (2-0 away) mitigates this. The spread indicates favor toward Northern Colorado, which also aligns with betting odds.
- Northern Colorado looks to build on its strong start (5-1) and maintain Big Sky conference momentum. Air Force seeks to improve their below .500 record and leverage home court advantage to regain footing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons: 160, N Colorado Bears: -192 | N Colorado Bears to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Air Force Falcons: -105 (3.5 points), N Colorado Bears: -115 (-3.5 points) | Northern Colorado Bears -3.5 points | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: -112 (144.5 points), Under: -108 (144.5 points) | Over 144.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | N Colorado Bears -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 144.5 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 144.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Northern Colorado Bears are favored to win a closely contested game, likely pushing beyond the 3.5-point spread and hitting the over on total points given the offensive capabilities, especially from Bloch and Denker. Air Force may keep it competitive but is less likely to cover the spread.
Predicted Score: Northern Colorado Bears 75 – Air Force Falcons 70
