Match Analysis: Arizona St Sun Devils vs USC Trojans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Maui, Hawai'i
Game Overview
The Arizona State Sun Devils face the USC Trojans in the Southwest Maui Invitational tournament. Both teams demonstrate strong early-season form with the Sun Devils holding a 6-1 record and the Trojans undefeated at 6-0. This matchup in a neutral, tournament setting offers high stakes early in the competitive season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Arizona State has a strong offense led by M. Odum averaging 18.3 PPG with solid free throw shooting (85.7%). USC's standout is R. Rice averaging 21.8 PPG with efficient shooting splits (40% FG, 76.3% FT), although he is currently dealing with a shoulder issue but still contributing effectively. Both teams exhibit strong start of season momentum with USC undefeated and Arizona State nearly so.
- Recent direct head-to-head data is limited, but given both schools are Pac-12 predecessors with frequent matchups, the teams are closely matched. The neutral venue and tournament format may reduce home-court impact, making individual performances critical.
- USC's key player R. Rice has a shoulder injury but played 20 minutes scoring 13 points with decent shooting, indicating partial effectiveness but possible limitation. No major injuries reported for Arizona State.
- Neutral site at Lahaina Civic Center in Maui removes home advantage. Both teams are competing in the Maui Invitational which is a high-visibility tournament attracting strong competition and providing motivation for statement wins early in the season.
- USC seeks to maintain a perfect record and establish dominance early, while Arizona State aims to recover from its only loss and demonstrate contender status in the tournament. Both teams highly motivated given tournament prestige and early season stakes.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona St Sun Devils: +170, USC Trojans: -200 | USC Trojans to win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Arizona St Sun Devils: +4.5 -110, USC Trojans: -4.5 -110 | Arizona State Sun Devils +4.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 163.5 -110, Under: 163.5 -110 | Under 163.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 163.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 163.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The game is expected to be tightly contested given similar team quality and motivation. USC's slight edge in undefeated momentum and a slightly more efficient offense gives them a narrow advantage, but Arizona State should cover the spread given the close matchup.
Predicted Score: USC Trojans 82 – Arizona St Sun Devils 78