Match Analysis: Iowa State Cyclones vs Syracuse Orange – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Game Overview
This is a consolation game in the Players Era Festival, featuring the No. 15 Iowa State Cyclones (6-0) against the Syracuse Orange (4-2). Both teams have played two games in Las Vegas prior to this matchup, with Iowa State winning both and Syracuse losing both. The game is scheduled for Wednesday, November 26, 2025, at 1 PM local time (6 PM UTC) and will be broadcast on TNT.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa State enters the game undefeated (6-0), having won their first two games in the tournament against Creighton (78-60) and St. John's (83-82). They have shown strong offensive and defensive balance, averaging 83.7 points per game and allowing only 68.3 points per game. Syracuse, on the other hand, is 4-2 overall and 0-2 in the tournament, losing close games to Houston (78-74) and Kansas (71-60). Their offense has struggled, particularly at the free-throw line, and they have been inconsistent in finishing games.
- There is no recent head-to-head data available for this matchup. The teams have not played each other in the last several seasons.
- Syracuse will be without Donnie Freeman (foot), their leading scorer (17.8 PPG), for the remainder of the tournament. This is a significant loss for the Orange, as Freeman is their top offensive threat. No major injuries have been reported for Iowa State.
- The game is being played in Las Vegas, which is a neutral site. Both teams had a short turnaround, learning their opponent and game time less than 12 hours before tip-off. The quick turnaround may affect preparation and recovery, but Iowa State has shown resilience in back-to-back games. Syracuse has struggled with free-throw shooting, which could be a decisive factor in a close game.
- Iowa State is motivated to finish the tournament on a high note and maintain their undefeated record. Syracuse is looking to salvage some pride after two tough losses and will be motivated to avoid a winless tournament. The game is not for a championship, but both teams will want to end the week with a victory.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones: -590, Syracuse Orange: 390 | Iowa State Cyclones | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones: -10.5 -110, Syracuse Orange: 10.5 -115 | Iowa State Cyclones -10.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 158.5 -110, Under: 158.5 -115 | Over 158.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 158.5 24% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 158.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Iowa State is favored to win this game due to their undefeated record, strong offensive and defensive performance, and the absence of Syracuse's leading scorer. Syracuse's struggles at the free-throw line and lack of offensive firepower without Freeman make it difficult for them to compete with Iowa State. The game is expected to be close, but Iowa State should pull away in the second half.
Predicted Score: Iowa State Cyclones 82, Syracuse Orange 76
