Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-12
- Time: 12:08 AM UTC
- Location: American Family Field
Game Overview
This decisive NLDS Game 5 between the Milwaukee Brewers (97-65) and the Chicago Cubs (92-70) will determine who advances to face the Dodgers in the NLCS. The Brewers are home favorites with a strong season record and slightly better rest for their bullpen, while the Cubs have fought back hard to force this winner-takes-all game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milwaukee boasts a 97-65 record with a 62.6% win rate as favorites and a strong 29-11 record when favored by -146 or more. Cubs are resilient, holding a 92-70 record but less favored in key metrics.
- The series is tied 2-2, with both teams exchanging blowout victories at home. This indicates a tight matchup with momentum swings.
- Brewers have key relievers well-rested (Uribe, Koenig, Megill) due to recent limited usage, potentially an advantage. No significant injury concerns reported for the Cubs.
- Home field advantage for the Brewers at American Family Field, plus familiar playoff atmosphere and crowd support.
- Both teams highly motivated in this elimination game; however, Brewers' recent bullpen rest and home advantage may provide a slight edge.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Brewers -144, Cubs +118 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Cubs +1.5 -180, Brewers -1.5 +147 | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 -108, Under 7.5 -113 | Over 7.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers 2% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 7.5 6% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 7.5 at 6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 6.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers to win on the moneyline
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 5, Chicago Cubs 3