Match Analysis: PAOK vs SK Brann – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 5:45 PM UTC
- Location: Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki, Greece
Game Overview
This UEFA Europa League League Phase Matchday 5 clash sees PAOK host SK Brann at Toumba Stadium. PAOK, currently ranked 24th in the competition, faces Brann, who sit 31st. The match is critical for both teams as they seek points to improve their standings and secure qualification for the knockout stages. PAOK is favored due to their home advantage and stronger recent form, while Brann will look to upset the hosts and boost their slim chances of progressing.
Key Factors to Consider
- PAOK enters the match with a solid domestic and European record, having won 12 of their last 15 competitive fixtures. Their home form is particularly strong, with only one loss in their last 10 home games. SK Brann, on the other hand, has struggled away from Norway, winning just 2 of their last 10 away matches in Europe. Brann's defense has been leaky, conceding at least one goal in 8 of their last 10 away games.
- PAOK and SK Brann have never met in competitive European fixtures. This is their first encounter, so there is no direct H2H history to analyze.
- No major injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- PAOK will benefit from a passionate home crowd at Toumba Stadium, which is known for its intimidating atmosphere. The weather forecast for Thessaloniki is clear with mild temperatures, favorable for attacking football. Brann will face the challenge of adapting to a hostile environment and a different style of play compared to their domestic league.
- PAOK is motivated to secure a top-8 finish and automatic qualification for the knockout rounds. A win here would significantly boost their chances. SK Brann, currently outside the qualification spots, needs a positive result to keep their hopes alive, but their motivation may be tempered by a tough away fixture and a long season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | PAOK: -175, SK Brann: 430, Draw: 325 | PAOK to win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | PAOK: -1 -102, SK Brann: 1 -118 | PAOK -1 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 3 100, Under: 3 -120 | Over 3 goals | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | PAOK 2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
PAOK is expected to control the game and create more scoring opportunities, especially in the first half. Brann will likely sit deep and look to counter, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed. A home win is the most likely outcome, with PAOK scoring at least two goals.
Predicted Score: PAOK 2-1 SK Brann