Match Analysis: Porto vs Nice – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-27
- Time: 5:45 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio do Dragão, Porto, Portugal
Game Overview
The UEFA Europa League match between FC Porto and OGC Nice will take place at Estádio do Dragão. Porto currently rank 14th in UEFA club rankings and have collected 7 points in the group stage (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss), while Nice hold 35th position and are still without a point after 4 defeats in the competition. Porto, under coach Francesco Farioli (formerly of Nice), are in good domestic form and have recently beaten Sintrense 4-0. Nice, however, are struggling, having suffered a heavy 5-1 defeat to Olympique de Marseille, with a generally limited squad and internal issues concerning ownership group INEOS.
Key Factors to Consider
- Porto's form is strong in both domestic and Europa League play, showing offensive potency and defensive stability. Nice, in contrast, are in poor form, lacking points in Europa League group stage and suffering heavy recent defeats.
- Limited recent head-to-head data is available, but Porto's home advantage and form edge suggest a dominance over Nice. No direct recent results indicate close matches, reinforcing Porto as favorites.
- Current detailed injury data for both teams is not explicitly available in the search results, but no major injury warnings have been flagged which could drastically alter team strength.
- Motivation is notably on Porto's side, with Farioli facing his previous club Nice and aiming top the group. Venue is the Estádio do Dragão, giving Porto home advantage. Nice's squad limitations and off-field distractions may impact performance.
- Porto, leading the group with 7 points, have strong motivation to consolidate their position. Nice, winless so far, must secure points to stay in contention but face an uphill task against Porto’s strong side.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Porto: -247, Nice: 598, Draw: 390 | Porto to win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Porto -1.25: -109, Nice +1.25: -111 | Porto -1.25 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 2.75: 100, Under 2.75: -120 | Under 2.75 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Porto -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.75 1% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Porto is strongly favored to win this match at home against Nice, with an expectation of control over the game and limited goals conceded. The prediction is a Porto win with under 3.5 goals.
Predicted Score: 2-0