Match Analysis: Iowa Hawkeyes vs Ole Miss Rebels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Acrisure Arena, Thousand Palms
Game Overview
The Iowa Hawkeyes host the Ole Miss Rebels in a neutral-site matchup at the Acrisure Classic. Both teams enter the contest undefeated at 5-0, making this a high-stakes early-season clash. Iowa boasts a dominant offensive and defensive profile, averaging 90.2 points per game and allowing just 62.6, while Ole Miss has shown resilience and strong night-game form. The betting market favors Iowa slightly, with the spread set at -2.5 and the total at 146.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa has won each of its last eight games against non-conference opponents and has covered the spread in four of its last five games. They have scored 77 or more points in every game and held opponents below 71 in each outing. Ole Miss has won its last 16 night games against non-AP-ranked opponents and is also 5-0, but their competition has been less challenging. Iowaβs scoring margin and defensive consistency give them a clear edge in recent form.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup, but both teams have strong records against non-conference opponents. Iowaβs recent dominance in similar matchups gives them a psychological edge.
- Ole Miss is dealing with injuries: Corey Chest is questionable with a foot issue, and Augusto Cassia is out with a leg injury. Iowa has no reported injuries, providing them with a full-strength roster.
- The game is being played at a neutral venue, which can sometimes level the playing field. However, Iowaβs experience in neutral-site games and their strong offensive identity may mitigate any home-court advantage.
- Both teams are motivated to maintain their undefeated records and build momentum for the rest of the season. Iowaβs recent success and strong form may give them an extra edge in motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes: -155, Ole Miss Rebels: 130 | Iowa Hawkeyes | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes: -2.5 -115, Ole Miss Rebels: 2.5 -105 | Iowa Hawkeyes -2.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 146.5 -108, Under: 146.5 -112 | Under 146.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 -2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Iowa is favored to win this matchup due to their superior offensive and defensive metrics, recent form, and lack of injuries. Ole Miss is a dangerous opponent with strong night-game form, but Iowaβs consistency and depth should prevail. The game is expected to be close, with Iowa likely covering the -2.5 spread and the total points falling under 146.5.
Predicted Score: Iowa 78, Ole Miss 72