Match Analysis: South Dakota St Jackrabbits vs Utah Valley Wolverines – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya, Cancun, Mexico
Game Overview
The South Dakota State Jackrabbits face the Utah Valley Wolverines in a closely matched NCAA basketball contest held at a neutral venue. Utah Valley enters the game with a 3-2 record, while South Dakota State holds a 4-2 record. Both teams have displayed solid defense and consistent scoring, making this an evenly poised matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Dakota State is 4-0 against the spread this season and has been holding opponents under 70 points consistently. Utah Valley has been in many close games this season, showing resilience and a good record against non-AP-ranked opponents (23 wins out of 28). Both teams have mixed recent results but strong defensive capabilities.
- Both teams have not had a significant recent head-to-head advantage; the matchup is expected to be tight based on simulations and records.
- No significant injuries reported for either side affecting the lineup.
- The game is played at a neutral venue in Cancun, Mexico, which may slightly limit home-court advantage but seems neutral given both teams' records in neutral-site games. South Dakota State has performed well at neutral venues.
- South Dakota State is motivated to continue its success against the spread and maintain momentum after recent solid defensive performances. Utah Valley seeks to leverage its experience in close games to secure a key early-season win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Dakota State Jackrabbits: -102, Utah Valley Wolverines: -118 | Utah Valley Wolverines to win | β β β ββ 54% |
| Spread | South Dakota State Jackrabbits: +1.5 -118, Utah Valley Wolverines: -1.5 -102 | South Dakota State Jackrabbits to cover +1.5 spread | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 152.5: -105, Under 152.5: -115 | Under 152.5 points | β β β ββ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah Valley Wolverines -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 14% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Utah Valley is favored narrowly based on simulation models with a 54% win probability, but South Dakota State's strong defense and ATS record make them a strong contender for an outright win or covering the spread.
Predicted Score: Utah Valley Wolverines 77 – 76 South Dakota State Jackrabbits