Match Analysis: UC Davis Aggies vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: UC Davis (Home)
Game Overview
The NCAA basketball matchup between the UC Davis Aggies and the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns features a home team with a solid 4-2 record facing an underperforming Louisiana squad currently 1-5. The Aggies enter with a strong home advantage and better recent form, while Louisiana struggles on the road and overall. Both teams have shown mixed trends against the spread and the over/under, with the Aggies favored heavily in moneyline and spread bets.
Key Factors to Consider
- UC Davis Aggies demonstrate solid form with a 4-2 record, including a recent three wins out of five and better home performance, while the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns have struggled with a 1-5 record and poor road performance. UC Davis is more consistent offensively and defensively, reflected in their recent wins and closer losses, whereas Louisiana has lost heavily and has lower power ratings.
- Recent direct head-to-head data is limited, but current form and rankings heavily favor UC Davis. No recent meetings are recorded for this season; as such, reliance is placed on extended seasonal trends and power rankings.
- No specific injury updates available from the current datasets for either team, indicating both squads likely to be near full strength for the matchup.
- UC Davis has a notable home court advantage (#4 in rankings) contributing +16.7 points, contrasted with Louisiana's difficulties playing away from home. The time zone difference has minimal impact due to early UTC start time. Public money overwhelmingly favors UC Davis, indicating market confidence in their win.
- UC Davis, with a better record and home advantage, likely motivated to maintain a strong start to the season. Louisiana, struggling with 1-5, will be highly motivated to snap a losing streak but may face challenges overcoming the quality gap and road disadvantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: 400, UC Davis Aggies: -550 | UC Davis Aggies to win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns: +9.5 -110, UC Davis Aggies: -9.5 -110 | UC Davis Aggies to cover -9.5 point spread | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 137.5 -115, Under: 137.5 -105 | Total points to go over 137.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC Davis Aggies -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 137.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 137.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UC Davis is strongly favored to win this matchup with a solid margin, supported by superior recent performance, home advantage, and market odds. The expected game flow points to a UC Davis victory covering the spread with a moderate to high-scoring contest close to the over/under line.
Predicted Score: UC Davis Aggies 73 – Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 62