Match Analysis: UTSA Roadrunners vs Rice Owls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
Game Overview
The UTSA Roadrunners (2-3) host the Rice Owls (3-3) in an AAC conference matchup with UTSA favored by 12.5 points. Both teams come off recent losses by identical 27-21 margins, setting up a competitive but nuanced game at a neutral venue with an over/under of 49.5 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- UTSA has struggled slightly with a 2-3 record, losing their last game to Temple, while Rice holds a 3-3 record, also losing their previous matchup to Florida Atlantic. UTSA’s defense is solid but has shown some vulnerability, whereas Rice has been inconsistent offensively.
- Recent head-to-head meetings have generally favored UTSA, but games have often been close, suggesting the spread is ambitious given Rice’s ability to keep games competitive.
- No significant injuries reported for either team that would drastically affect either side's performance or lineup stability.
- Playing at the Alamodome gives UTSA home-field advantage. Weather is controlled indoors, removing weather as a significant factor. The importance of conference standings adds motivation for both teams.
- Both teams need a win to improve their AAC standing; UTSA aims to snap a losing streak while Rice looks to capitalize on underdog status and momentum from recent competitive performances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UTSA: -440, Rice: +340 | UTSA Roadrunners | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | UTSA: -108, Rice: -112 | Rice Owls +12.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: -108, Under: -112 | Under 49.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 19.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on UTSA Roadrunners moneyline as the highest EV play due to home advantage, stronger defense, and superior head-to-head dominance despite the modest underdog value on Rice in the spread. Expect the game to stay under 49.5 points based on recent scoring trends and defensive strengths.
Predicted Score: UTSA Roadrunners 24 – Rice Owls 14
