Match Analysis: Bowling Green Falcons vs Toledo Rockets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-11
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Game Overview
Toledo (3-2, 1-1 MAC) travels to face Bowling Green (2-3, 0-1 MAC) in a Mid-American Conference rivalry with Toledo favored by the books and recent form supporting the Rockets.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toledo has been the stronger team recently, covering the spread in 5 of their last 6 games and winning 4 of those outright[3]. Bowling Green is under .500 and has a losing conference record.
- This is the 90th meeting between these teams. Historical H2H leans toward Toledo in recent years, but detailed recent results and trends are not available in search results[2].
- No injury information is available in the search results.
- No major external factors (weather, schedule quirks, etc.) are reported in the available data.
- Toledo is in contention for the MAC title race and needs to avoid upsets; Bowling Green is desperate for their first conference win.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Toledo -380, Bowling Green +300 | Toledo moneyline | β β β β β 80% |
Spread | Toledo -10.5 (-112), Bowling Green +10.5 (-108) | Toledo -10.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 49.5 (-115), Under 49.5 (-105) | Under 49.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Toledo Rockets 192% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 49.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Toledo Rockets at 192% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 64% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toledo is the better team on paper and in recent form, but the spread is significant; the under looks attractive with both teams likely to prioritize controlling the ball.
Predicted Score: Toledo 24, Bowling Green 13