Match Analysis: St. John's Red Storm vs Iowa State Cyclones – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-24
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise
Game Overview
The St. John's Red Storm (3-1) face the Iowa State Cyclones (4-0) in a key NCAA basketball matchup. Iowa State is unbeaten so far and hosting the game, holding a slight advantage in home performance and recent form. The game is expected to be competitive, with an over/under total set at 160.5 points, reflecting a moderate scoring pace.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa State enters the game undefeated at 4-0, demonstrating strong performance with a 3-1 record against the spread and a recent tendency for games to go over the total points line. St. John's holds a respectable 3-1 record but has been handicapped by the season-ending injury to Bryce Hopkins, an important forward/guard.
- Recent head-to-head data is limited, but Iowa State holds a home advantage and has been favored by bettors with 100% of public bets backing them on the spread. St. John's has yet to gain significant betting support reflected in odds and public percentages.
- St. John's will miss Bryce Hopkins for the entire season due to a knee injury, weakening their offensive and defensive capabilities. Iowa State appears to be without major injuries, maintaining full strength.
- The game is played at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, giving Iowa State home court benefit. Public betting shows strong support for Iowa State (100% bets on spread), indicating confidence in their form and home edge.
- Iowa State is motivated to maintain their perfect start at home and continue building early-season momentum. St. John's, coming off a solid start, looks to overcome injury setbacks and challenge a top-tier opponent on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. John's Red Storm: 2.12, Iowa State Cyclones: 1.76 | Iowa State Cyclones win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones: -1.5 -120, St. John's Red Storm: +1.5 100 | Iowa State Cyclones to cover -1.5 spread | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | over: 160.5 -110, under: 160.5 -110 | Over 160.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 160.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 160.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Iowa State Cyclones to win by a narrow margin, leveraging home advantage and current undefeated form. The game is expected to be competitive but with Iowa State slightly favored to cover the spread.
Predicted Score: Iowa State Cyclones 82 – St. John's Red Storm 78