Match Analysis: Murray St Racers vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-24
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: John Gray Gymnasium, George Town
Game Overview
The Murray State Racers (4-1) host the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (3-1) in an NCAA basketball matchup. Murray State have been strong at home with a 4-0 record, while Middle Tennessee recently suffered a heavy 86-61 loss at Michigan. The Racers are favorites with a 7.5-point spread advantage and the total points line is set near 162.5-163.5.
Key Factors to Consider
- Murray State leads in offense averaging about 94.4 points per game with better shooting percentages (49.35% FG, 79.26% FT, 38.56% 3PT) compared to Middle Tennessee's 86.75 points per game and lower shooting efficiency (45.17% FG, 66.07% FT, 33.33% 3PT). Defensively, Murray State allows 77.2 points per game versus Middle Tennessee's 66.25 points allowed. Murray State is on a 2-game winning streak, while Middle Tennessee is on a 1-game losing streak.
- The matchup is a longtime rivalry renewed at a neutral venue. Murray State holds the advantage in recent performance and home court comfort. Historical head-to-head trends favor Murray State with majority ATS wins as a favorite (9-2 ATS in last 11 favorite games).
- No significant injury reports have been noted for either team leading into this match, implying both squads should be near full strength.
- The game is played in the Cayman Islands Classic, which may introduce travel and unfamiliar conditions but both teams face the same factor. Murray State has the home designation but the neutral island venue slightly neutralizes home court edge.
- Murray State aims to maintain their strong home form and build on their 4-0 home winning streak. Middle Tennessee seeks redemption from recent road losses and to improve their 1-1 away record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Murray St Racers: -335, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: 265 | Murray St Racers to win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Murray St Racers: -7.5 -110, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: +7.5 -110 | Murray St Racers to cover -7.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over: 162.5 -115, Under: 162.5 -105 | Under 162.5 points | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Murray St Racers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 162.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 162.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Murray State is favored to win, likely covering the 7.5-point spread and with a total score expected under 163. The Racers' offensive efficiency and home motivation give them an edge.
Predicted Score: Murray State Racers 83, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 76