Match Analysis: SIU-Edwardsville Cougars vs Alabama St Hornets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Clune Arena, USAF Academy, CO
Game Overview
SIU-Edwardsville Cougars host Alabama State Hornets in a non-conference matchup at Clune Arena. Both teams enter with identical 3-3 records, seeking to move above .500. The game is part of the Air Force Classic, adding a neutral-site dynamic. Recent form shows Alabama State coming off a dominant 101-80 win, while SIUE suffered a 77-63 loss to Air Force. The combined total points line is set at 141.5, reflecting expectations for a moderate-scoring contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Alabama State has shown explosive offensive capability, scoring 101+ points in two of their last three games. Their defense has been inconsistent, allowing 80+ points in three straight. SIUE has struggled offensively, averaging just 63.5 points over their last two games, but their defense has held opponents to 77 or fewer in three of their last four. Alabama Stateβs recent win streak (3-1 in last four) contrasts with SIUEβs 1-3 slide.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup. Both programs have limited history against each other, making recent form and statistical trends more relevant.
- No confirmed injury reports for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads appear to have full rosters available.
- The game is played at a neutral site (Clune Arena), which may slightly favor Alabama State, who just played there and won decisively. SIUE is on a road trip, having lost their last two away games. The Air Force Classic setting could add minor motivational and crowd factors.
- Both teams are motivated to break even and gain momentum. Alabama State aims to build on their recent offensive surge, while SIUE seeks to rebound from consecutive losses and prove their competitiveness against a similarly ranked opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama St Hornets: +140, SIU-Edwardsville Cougars: -172 | Alabama St Hornets | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Alabama St Hornets: +3.5 (-106), SIU-Edwardsville Cougars: -3.5 (-114) | Alabama St Hornets +3.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 141.5 (-110), Under: 141.5 (-110) | Over | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama St Hornets 54% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 141.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Alabama St Hornets at 54% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 38.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Alabama State is favored to win or cover the spread due to superior recent offensive output and momentum. SIUEβs defensive resilience could keep the game close, but Alabama Stateβs scoring ability is likely to prevail. The total points line suggests a moderate-scoring game, but Alabama Stateβs recent high-scoring games tilt the edge toward the over.
Predicted Score: Alabama State 78, SIU-Edwardsville 68