Match Analysis: Calgary Flames vs Dallas Stars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 3:10 AM UTC
- Location: Scotiabank Saddledome
Game Overview
The Dallas Stars face off against the Calgary Flames in a Western Conference matchup at Scotiabank Saddledome. The Stars enter as clear favorites, boasting a strong recent record and superior offensive production. The Flames have struggled this season, particularly at home, and are looking to break a losing streak. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with both teams showing offensive tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dallas Stars have been in excellent form, winning 13 of their first 21 games and scoring 28 goals in their last seven outings. They are averaging 3.24 goals per game (10th in NHL) and allowing 2.76 (8th). Calgary Flames are struggling, with only 1 win in their last 9 games, averaging 2.27 goals per game (32nd) and allowing 3.05 (18th). Dallas also leads in power play efficiency (31%), while Calgary is last (12.5%).
- Dallas has dominated recent meetings, winning 5 of the last 7 games against Calgary and sweeping the three-game series last season. The Stars have a clear psychological edge and have consistently outplayed the Flames in recent years.
- Dallas is missing key defensemen Thomas Harley and Ilya Lyubushkin, and center Matt Duchene is questionable with an upper-body injury. Calgary has no major reported injuries, but their roster depth is limited, and their goaltending has been inconsistent.
- The game is being played in Calgary, giving the Flames a home-ice advantage, but their home record is poor (0-3-1). Dallas is on a four-game road trip, but they have shown resilience away from home. The officiating and potential for penalties could play a role, given Dallas's strong power play and Calgary's weak penalty kill.
- Dallas is motivated to maintain their strong position in the Western Conference and continue their winning streak. Calgary is desperate for a win to boost morale and improve their standings, but their recent form suggests they may struggle to match Dallas's intensity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Calgary Flames: 128, Dallas Stars: -159 | Dallas Stars | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Calgary Flames: 1.5 -200, Dallas Stars: -1.5 160 | Dallas Stars -1.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over: 6 -106, Under: 6 -118 | Over 6 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Stars -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 6 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 6 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dallas is expected to win this game, leveraging their superior offensive firepower, recent form, and head-to-head dominance. Calgary's defensive struggles and lack of scoring will likely be exposed, and Dallas's power play should capitalize on Calgary's weak penalty kill. The game is likely to be high-scoring, with Dallas controlling the pace and outshooting Calgary.
Predicted Score: Dallas Stars 4 – 3 Calgary Flames