Match Analysis: Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs Mercer Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Baptist Health Arena
Game Overview
Eastern Kentucky Colonels (1-3) host Mercer Bears (2-2) in a non-conference matchup at Baptist Health Arena. Eastern Kentucky enters the game on a three-game losing streak, while Mercer has shown moderate consistency with two wins and two losses. The Colonels are favored by 4.5 points, with a total set at 164.5. Both teams have struggled defensively, with Eastern Kentucky allowing 75.3 points per game (278th nationally) and Mercer allowing 75.3 as well. The matchup features two teams with similar scoring outputs and defensive vulnerabilities, setting up a competitive contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Eastern Kentucky averages 85.3 points per game (42.9% FG) and 40.0 rebounds, but commits 20.8 fouls per game and turns the ball over 14.3 times. Mercer averages 76.1 points per game (43.5% FG) and 37.3 rebounds, with 10.8 turnovers and 16.8 fouls per game. Eastern Kentucky is slightly more efficient offensively but less disciplined defensively. Mercer has better rebounding and turnover control, but struggles with assists (55 for the season, 304th nationally). Both teams are below average defensively, with Eastern Kentucky allowing 45.7% FG (284th) and Mercer allowing 41.9% FG (70th).
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup. Both teams have played similar competition, with Eastern Kentucky losing to WKU (79-87), JAC (67-78), and UNF (81-86), while Mercerβs losses came against similar mid-major opponents. Eastern Kentucky has covered the spread in only one of their last three games, while Mercer has covered in two of their last three.
- No injury reports are available for either team as of the latest updates.
- Eastern Kentucky has a slight edge playing at home, but their recent home record is 1-1. The game is being played at Baptist Health Arena, which is a neutral environment for both teams. The matchup is part of the ASUN/SoCon Challenge, adding some non-conference significance.
- Eastern Kentucky is looking to snap a three-game losing streak and improve their home record. Mercer is aiming to build momentum after a 2-2 start and prove they can compete with stronger mid-majors. Both teams are motivated to avoid further losses and improve their NCAA tournament resumes.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Eastern Kentucky Colonels: -215, Mercer Bears: 176 | Eastern Kentucky Colonels | Not available |
| Spread | Eastern Kentucky Colonels: -4.5, Mercer Bears: 4.5 | Mercer Bears +4.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 164.5, under: 164.5 | Over 164.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Eastern Kentucky Colonels -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 164.5 -3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Eastern Kentucky Colonels at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Eastern Kentucky is favored due to their offensive firepower and home advantage, but Mercerβs better rebounding and turnover control could keep the game close. The Colonels are likely to win, but not by a large margin. The total is set at 164.5, and both teamsβ defensive struggles suggest the game could go over, but recent trends show Eastern Kentuckyβs games have gone over in two of their last three. Mercerβs games have gone over in one of their last three. The most likely outcome is a close Eastern Kentucky victory.
Predicted Score: Eastern Kentucky 84, Mercer 80