Match Analysis: Dayton Flyers vs North Carolina Central Eagles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: UD Arena, Dayton, OH
Game Overview
The Dayton Flyers, with a strong 4-1 season record, host the North Carolina Central Eagles, who are currently 2-4. Dayton enters as a heavy favorite, leveraging balanced scoring, efficient offense, and experienced coaching to challenge the Eagles. North Carolina Central recently dominated a non-D1 opponent but are struggling overall and face a tough road test against a high-performing Flyers team.
Key Factors to Consider
- Dayton averages 79 points per game with solid defense allowing about 69 points per game. Their effective field goal percentage, turnover control, and balanced scoring make them formidable. Conversely, NC Central has some talented players but has a weak 2-4 record and lower shooting efficiency. NC Central dominated their last game but against a weaker opponent.
- No recent direct head-to-head game data available for this matchup. Dayton is favored historically given better overall performance and stronger roster talent this season.
- Dayton has no significant injury concerns reported. North Carolina Central's G Adam Njie Jr. is out for non-injury reasons. Dayton may have G Jaron McKie with a shoulder issue but impact is unclear.
- Dayton is playing at home (UD Arena), which bolsters their advantage. NC Central is on a four-game road losing streak. Both teams have had varying performances against the spread and totals recently; however, Dayton's home form is considerably stronger.
- Dayton looks motivated to maintain their strong record and prove dominance at home after an overtime win against Marquette. NC Central aims to stop their losing streak and improve on the road but faces a significant challenge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dayton Flyers: -10000, North Carolina Central Eagles: 3300 | Dayton Flyers to win | β β β β β 95% |
| Spread | Dayton Flyers: -27.5 -118, North Carolina Central Eagles: +27.5 -102 | Dayton Flyers -27.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 148.5 -110, Under: 148.5 -110 | Over 148.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dayton Flyers -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 148.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 148.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dayton Flyers are strongly favored to win convincingly, likely covering a large spread. The prediction favors Dayton to cover the -27.5 spread with a final high-scoring game expected over the total points line of 148.5.
Predicted Score: Dayton Flyers 88, North Carolina Central Eagles 67