Match Analysis: New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 23, 2025
- Time: 9:25 PM UTC
- Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Game Overview
The New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season, marking the first divisional matchup between these NFC South rivals. Both teams are struggling significantly, with the Saints sitting at 2-8 (1-4 in division) and the Falcons at 3-7 (1-4 in division), representing a battle between two of the weakest teams in the league. This game features rookie quarterback Tyler Shough for the Saints against veteran Kirk Cousins for the Falcons, renewing a decades-old rivalry in a context where both franchises are fighting for relevance.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Saints have been severely underperforming, ranking at the bottom of the NFC South standings with only 2 wins through 10 games. They have scored just 155 points while allowing 250 points, indicating both offensive incompetence and defensive vulnerability. The Falcons, while slightly better at 3-7, are marginally more competitive with 195 points scored against 239 allowed. However, both teams rank in the lower echelon of NFL performance, suggesting this will be a low-quality matchup decided by which team makes fewer critical errors.
- The search results indicate this is the first meeting of the season between these division rivals. Historical Falcons-Saints matchups typically feature competitive divisional play, but the dramatic weakness of both teams in 2025 significantly diminishes the traditional rivalry dynamics.
- The search results do not provide specific injury information for either team. This represents a significant data gap that would normally warrant careful analysis of starting lineups and key player availability.
- The Saints play at home in the Caesars Superdome, providing a meaningful home-field advantage in a division game. The indoor environment eliminates weather as a variable, potentially benefiting the team with better play-calling and execution, which neither team has demonstrated this season.
- Both teams are in desperation mode, fighting to avoid the worst records in the NFC South. The Saints are particularly motivated given their 2-8 record and the need to salvage their season. The Falcons enter as slight favorites due to marginally better record and performance metrics, but motivation levels should be relatively equal given both teams' poor positioning.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Falcons +114 / Saints -135 | Atlanta Falcons | โ โ โ โโ 54% |
| Spread | Falcons +2.5 (-115) / Saints -2.5 (-105) | Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | โ โ โ โโ 52% |
| Over/under | Over 40.5 (-105) / Under 40.5 (-115) | Under 40.5 | โ โ โ โโ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints 23% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 40.5 8% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: New Orleans Saints at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to win this matchup by approximately 2-3 points, covering the -2.5 spread at the Saints. While both teams are poorly constructed, the Falcons' slightly superior record, better point differential, and experience with Kirk Cousins at quarterback provide marginal advantages over a Saints team starting a rookie QB. However, the Saints' home-field advantage and the low quality of both teams create substantial uncertainty. This represents a 'pick your poison' scenario where neither team inspires confidence.
Predicted Score: Atlanta Falcons 21, New Orleans Saints 19