Match Analysis: New Mexico St Aggies vs Samford Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Pan American Center, Las Cruces
Game Overview
This matchup features the New Mexico State Aggies (3-0) hosting the Samford Bulldogs (3-3) in a non-conference game. The Aggies are undefeated and have shown strong defensive efficiency, while Samford has been inconsistent but capable of scoring. The game is part of the early season slate, with both teams looking to build momentum.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico State has won each of its last nine home games and is ranked 69th nationally in points allowed per game (66.0). They force 18.7 turnovers per game and allow opponents to shoot just 39.1% from the field. Samford averages 78.0 points per game (209th in D-1) but shoots only 41.2% from the field and 34.9% from three. The Bulldogs are strong in assists (90, 40th in D-1) but give up 15.5 fouls per game.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- The game is being played at Pan American Center, where New Mexico State has a strong home record. The Aggies have won the first half in six of their last seven home games.
- New Mexico State is motivated to maintain its undefeated record and strong home streak. Samford is looking to bounce back after a mixed start and prove itself against a higher-level opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico St Aggies: -310, Samford Bulldogs: 250 | New Mexico St Aggies | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | New Mexico St Aggies: -6.5 -115, Samford Bulldogs: 6.5 -105 | New Mexico St Aggies -6.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 143.5 -115, Under: 143.5 -105 | Under 143.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico St Aggies -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 143.5 17% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 143.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Mexico State is favored due to their strong defense, home-court advantage, and recent form. Samford's offensive inconsistencies and higher turnover rate make it difficult to see them pulling off an upset. The Aggies are likely to control the pace and limit Samford's scoring opportunities.
Predicted Score: New Mexico State Aggies 72, Samford Bulldogs 68