Match Analysis: Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 21, 2025
- Time: 1:40 AM UTC
- Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Game Overview
The Dallas Mavericks host the New Orleans Pelicans in an NBA Cup (In-Season Tournament) group stage matchup. The Mavericks enter as favorites with a -3.5 point spread, seeking to improve their 4-12 record. The Pelicans arrive with a struggling 2-13 record and are on a 7-game losing streak. This represents the second meeting between these teams this season, with the Pelicans having defeated the Mavericks 101-99 in their first matchup on November 5, 2025.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Dallas Mavericks (4-12, 13th in Western Conference) have lost their last 2 games and sit 7.5 games behind the division-leading Houston Rockets. However, they feature Cooper Flagg averaging 15.5 PPG on 45.5% FG and 78.3% FT. The New Orleans Pelicans (2-13, 15th in Western Conference) are struggling significantly, currently 9 games behind Houston and on a 7-game losing streak. Their defensive and offensive efficiency have been problematic, as evidenced by their league-worst record.
- In their season opener on November 5, 2025, the Pelicans defeated the Mavericks 101-99 in a close contest. This creates a revenge narrative for Dallas, though the Pelicans demonstrated they can compete with the Mavericks' roster. The series continues with two more matchups scheduled (December 22 and March 16).
- Specific injury information is not detailed in the available search results. This represents a data gap that would typically significantly impact prediction confidence, as key player availability could swing the matchup considerably.
- The in-season tournament format may influence playing intensity and rotational decisions. Home court advantage favors Dallas at the American Airlines Center. The Mavericks' familiarity with winning situations versus the Pelicans' psychological burden of a 7-game skid creates environmental advantages for Dallas.
- The Mavericks are motivated by the revenge factor after their season-opening loss to New Orleans. Dallas also needs wins to climb out of playoff contention territory. The Pelicans, despite their losing streak, showed they can beat quality opponents, potentially providing psychological momentum. Both teams have tournament seeding implications.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Mavericks -154 | New Orleans Pelicans +130 | Dallas Mavericks Win | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Dallas Mavericks -3.5 (-105) | New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 (-115) | Dallas Mavericks -3.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 232.5 (-110) | Under 232.5 (-110) | Under 232.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Mavericks -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 232.5 -1% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Dallas Mavericks at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Dallas Mavericks are favored to win this matchup. The combination of home court advantage, superior roster depth with Cooper Flagg's emergence, the revenge narrative, and New Orleans' seven-game losing streak creates a compelling case for a Mavericks victory. However, the Pelicans' demonstrated ability to win close games (101-99 in their last meeting) suggests this will be a competitive contest rather than a blowout. The spread of -3.5 appears appropriately calibrated to the strength differential.
Predicted Score: Dallas Mavericks 107, New Orleans Pelicans 103