Match Analysis: Oregon St Beavers vs Evansville Purple Aces – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Oregon State (Home)
Game Overview
Oregon State Beavers (3-1) host the Evansville Purple Aces (2-3) in an NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Oregon State enters as heavy favorites with a -400 moneyline, reflecting their superior record and home-court advantage. Evansville, despite a losing record, has shown offensive firepower averaging over 130 points in 87% of their recent games. This matchup presents a classic scenario of a favored team facing an opponent with offensive capability but defensive inconsistency.
Key Factors to Consider
- Oregon State has compiled a 3-1 record with a +5 point differential (284 points for, 289 against) and maintains a perfect 3-0 home record. Recent performances show wins against Illinois (64-59), North Texas (66-64), and Utah State (71-52), though they suffered a road loss to Oregon (87-75). Evansville sits at 2-3 with a +27 point differential (367 for, 340 against), indicating offensive strength despite their losing record. Evansville has scored over 130 points in 87% of games over the last month and over 140 points in 62% of their contests, demonstrating consistent high-volume offensive output.
- Oregon State and Evansville have no previous head-to-head history, making this a first matchup between the programs. This eliminates historical trends but allows for clean analytical assessment based purely on current form and team composition.
- No injuries reported for either team as of the most recent available information.
- Oregon State plays at home where they are undefeated (3-0), providing significant home-court advantage. Evansville has struggled on the road (0-1) and will face travel fatigue. Oregon State recently suffered a loss to Oregon, which may serve as motivation to return to winning form at home. Evansville enters on a two-game losing streak (losses to UT Arlington 84-76 and Wright State 69-60), which could affect confidence.
- Oregon State seeks to capitalize on home-court advantage and maintain their undefeated home record while bouncing back from a road loss. Evansville aims to snap a two-game losing streak and prove their offensive capabilities can translate to away performance, though their 0-1 road record suggests struggles with external conditions.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oregon State -400 | Evansville +300 | Oregon State Beavers Win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Oregon State -8.5 (-110) | Evansville +8.5 (-110) | Oregon State -8.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 136.5 (-110) | Under 136.5 (-110) | Over 136.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oregon St Beavers 220% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 136.5 24% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Oregon St Beavers at 220% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 73.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Oregon State is favored to win decisively. Their undefeated home record (3-0), superior defensive profile (289 points allowed vs. Evansville's 340), and heavy moneyline odds (-400) reflect their status as clear favorites. While Evansville has demonstrated offensive capability with 87% of games exceeding 130 points, their 2-3 record and inconsistent defense (340 points allowed) suggest they will struggle against Oregon State's home environment. The predicted outcome is an Oregon State victory by 7-9 points, with the game landing near the spread line of -8.5.
Predicted Score: Oregon State 72, Evansville 63