Match Analysis: Memphis Tigers vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Baha Mar Convention Center, Nassau, Bahamas
Game Overview
The Memphis Tigers face the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in the championship game of the Baha Mar Championship, a neutral-site tournament in the Bahamas. Memphis (1-3) enters with recent losses, including a 80-71 defeat to Purdue, while Wake Forest (3-2) narrowly lost 84-83 to Texas Tech. Both teams have demonstrated scoring ability, with Memphis relying on guard Dug McDaniel's balanced contributions and Wake Forest led by Juke Harris' 22.6 PPG.
Key Factors to Consider
- Memphis has struggled recently with a 1-3 start and losses by significant margins except for the close loss to Purdue. Wake Forest has a slightly better record at 3-2 and has played more competitively in recent games, including a narrow loss to Texas Tech and a dominant 109-75 win over UMass-Lowell. Memphis relies heavily on Dug McDaniel (12.5 PPG), but has shooting efficiency issues. Wake Forest's Juke Harris leads with 22.6 PPG and high efficiency (58.5% FG).
- There is no direct recent head-to-head data available for the 2025-26 season between these two teams. Both meet in this neutral-site championship game for the Baha Mar Championship for a rare matchup.
- Memphis guard Hasan Abdul Hakim is out with a quad injury and did not travel to the Bahamas, which weakens Memphis's backcourt depth. No injury reports currently indicate health concerns for Wake Forest key players.
- Neutral venueβBaha Mar Convention Center in the Bahamasβeliminates home court advantage for either team. Both teams have traveled recently for tournament play, with Memphis playing Purdue on Nov 20 and Wake Forest playing Texas Tech on Nov 20, so fatigue and adaptation to the venue may impact performance.
- Both teams are motivated to win this championship game to capture the Baha Mar title. Memphis looks to rebound from multiple losses to build confidence. Wake Forest aims to continue strong tournament play and improve to 4-2 overall.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers: +125, Wake Forest Demon Deacons: -150 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons | β β β ββ 68% |
| Spread | Memphis Tigers: 2.5 -110, Wake Forest Demon Deacons: -2.5 -110 | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over: 160.5 -110, Under: 160.5 -110 | Under 160.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 160.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 160.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Wake Forest Demon Deacons are favored to win based on more consistent recent performance, key player efficiency, and Memphis's injury issues. The game is expected to be competitive and relatively close, but Wake Forest's offensive strength and Memphis's struggles in scoring efficiency tilt the prediction.
Predicted Score: Wake Forest Demon Deacons 82 – Memphis Tigers 78