Match Analysis: Old Dominion Monarchs vs Morgan St Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Chartway Arena, Norfolk, VA
Game Overview
The Old Dominion Monarchs (2-3) host the Morgan State Bears (1-4) in a college basketball NCAAB matchup at Chartway Arena. Old Dominion is favored heavily with moneyline odds of -1100 and a spread of -13.5, reflecting their stronger historical and performance metrics compared to Morgan State, who sit at +700 on the moneyline and +13.5 on the spread. The game total is set at 156.5 points. Both teams have shown defensive strengths recently, with a tendency towards lower-scoring games, indicating a likely 'under' on the total points scored.
Key Factors to Consider
- Old Dominion holds a 2-3 record with recent struggles in night games against non-conference opponents, going 1-3. Their defense concedes 33.6% on 3-pointers and allows 82.0 points per game. Morgan State stands at 1-4, allowing 82.0 points per game and committing more turnovers per contest (12.6). Morgan State has had difficulty winning away and has a 3-game losing streak. Both teams show weaknesses in consistency and defensive rebounding but Old Dominion performs slightly better overall.
- The last meeting ended with a decisive Old Dominion win, 76-53. Historically, Old Dominion has an advantage in recent head-to-head matches and in performance metrics.
- No significant injury information has been reported for either team in the available data, suggesting both squads should be near full strength.
- The game is played at Old Dominion's home arena, Chartway Arena, which may provide a home-court advantage. Public betting heavily favors Old Dominion with 82% of bets, indicating strong faith from bettors and likely sharp money backing. The television coverage on ESPN+ also suggests good exposure.
- Old Dominion is motivated to improve on their 2-3 season start with a home game advantage, while Morgan State aims to overcome a 1-4 losing start with an opportunity for an upset. Old Dominion’s recent underperformance against non-conference foes at night could influence their focus and effort in this game.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Morgan St Bears: +700, Old Dominion Monarchs: -1100 | Old Dominion Monarchs | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Morgan St Bears: +13.5 -112, Old Dominion Monarchs: -13.5 -108 | Old Dominion Monarchs to cover -13.5 | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over: 156.5 -115, Under: 156.5 -105 | Under 156.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 156.5 17% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 156.5 at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Old Dominion Monarchs are predicted to win comfortably, covering the -13.5 spread due to their stronger team composition, home advantage, and past head-to-head dominance. The game is expected to be defensively driven, leading to a final score under the 156.5 total points line.
Predicted Score: Old Dominion Monarchs 80 – 63 Morgan State Bears
