Match Analysis: New Mexico Lobos vs Mississippi St Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
Game Overview
The New Mexico Lobos (3-1) will host the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-1) in the NCAA basketball matchup at the T-Mobile Center. Both teams are near .500 records this season with New Mexico riding a two-game losing streak and Mississippi State recovering from a recent heavy loss to Kansas State. New Mexico is favored to win at home due to a deeper and more talented roster despite Mississippi State's competitive play.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico has a 3-1 record but recently lost two in a row, including a 12-point loss to Nebraska. Mississippi State is 2-1 with a recent 21-point loss to Kansas State but has players like Josh Hubbard putting up solid scoring numbers. New Mexico shows strong defensive numbers allowed (67.6 PPG) compared to Mississippi State (81.0 PPG allowed).
- Limited recent direct comparisons available, but New Mexico has had a better overall season performance and home court advantage. Recent games show mixed results, with New Mexico earning wins in some matchups against Missouri Valley or lower-ranked teams.
- Mississippi State's forward Brandon Walker is questionable with an undisclosed injury, which may impact Bulldogs' lineup and depth. New Mexico reports no significant injuries affecting key players.
- The game is played at a neutral site, T-Mobile Center, but considered a home game for New Mexico, giving them a slight venue advantage. Betting public is split evenly at 50% on each side, indicating uncertainty.
- Both teams need a win to secure a winning record early in the season, increasing motivation. New Mexico likely has stronger motivation to rebound from a two-game skid and capitalize on home court advantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mississippi St Bulldogs: -300, New Mexico Lobos: 240 | New Mexico Lobos to win | β β β ββ 65% |
| Spread | Mississippi St Bulldogs -6.5: -106, New Mexico Lobos +6.5: -114 | New Mexico Lobos +6.5 to cover | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 154.5: -106, Under 154.5: -114 | Under 154.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos 107% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: New Mexico Lobos at 107% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 44.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New Mexico Lobos are predicted to win, likely covering the spread due to their stronger roster, defense, and home court advantage. The total points are expected to stay under the 154.5 line given recent defensive trends and pace.
Predicted Score: New Mexico Lobos 76 – Mississippi St Bulldogs 68