Match Analysis: Botafogo vs Bahia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-02
- Time: 12:30 AM UTC
- Location: Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
A tightly contested Brasileirão Serie A clash between 5th placed Botafogo and 6th placed Bahia with close league standings, recent form favoring Botafogo slightly, and prior encounters evenly matched.
Key Factors to Consider
- Botafogo holds a slight edge in recent form and league position (5th with 40 points vs 6th with 37 for Bahia). They have more wins (11 vs 10) and a better goal difference (+17 vs +3). Both teams show balanced competitiveness in the season.
- In last 10 encounters, Bahia won 6, Botafogo 2, and 2 were draws. However, recent league meetings have been tight with a 0-0 draw in August 2024 and overall H2H goals average of 2 per game indicates moderate scoring.
- No notable absences reported, indicating both teams likely field near-full strength squads.
- Match played at Botafogo’s home ground, providing them home advantage. No significant weather or external disruptions noted.
- Both teams push for a higher league finish and potential continental qualification, making motivation high especially for Botafogo to capitalize at home.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Botafogo -121, Bahia +350, Draw +257 | Botafogo | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
Spread | Botafogo -0.5 -121, Bahia +50 +101 | Botafogo -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 -124, Under 2.25 +104 | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Botafogo 4% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 18% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Botafogo to win on the moneyline, Botafogo -0.5 on spread, Under 2.25 goals
Predicted Score: 1-0