Match Analysis: Heerenveen vs AZ Alkmaar – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 11:15 AM UTC
- Location: Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen, Netherlands
Game Overview
This Eredivisie clash features SC Heerenveen, currently 12th in the league, hosting AZ Alkmaar, who sit 4th. AZ Alkmaar are in strong form, having been undefeated in 16 of their last 17 matches, while Heerenveen have struggled for consistency. The match is expected to be competitive, with AZ Alkmaar favored due to their superior league position and recent results.
Key Factors to Consider
- AZ Alkmaar are in excellent form, with 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 7 matches, scoring 12 goals and conceding 7. Heerenveen have 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses in their last 8 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding 10. AZ Alkmaar's defense is solid, and their attack has been consistent, while Heerenveen have shown vulnerability at both ends.
- In the last 43 meetings, AZ Alkmaar have won 22, Heerenveen have won 13, and there have been 8 draws. AZ Alkmaar have a clear advantage, with a 51% win rate. The average goals per match in their H2H is 3.81, and both teams have scored in 65% of their encounters.
- There is no specific injury information available for this match, but both teams are expected to field their strongest available lineups.
- The match is being played at Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen's home ground. Home advantage could play a role, but AZ Alkmaar's recent form and H2H record suggest they are capable of overcoming this.
- AZ Alkmaar are fighting for a top position in the league, while Heerenveen are looking to climb out of the lower half. Both teams have strong motivation, but AZ Alkmaar's recent success and league position give them an edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar: 118, Heerenveen: 190, Draw: 285 | AZ Alkmaar | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | AZ Alkmaar: -0.25 -108, Heerenveen: 25 -112 | AZ Alkmaar -0.25 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 3 -115, Under: 3 -105 | Over 3 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | AZ Alkmaar 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 3 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 3 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
AZ Alkmaar are favored to win this match due to their superior form, league position, and strong head-to-head record. Heerenveen may put up a fight at home, but AZ Alkmaar's consistency and defensive solidity make them the likely winners.
Predicted Score: Heerenveen 1 – 3 AZ Alkmaar