Match Analysis: San Diego State Aztecs vs San Jose State Spartans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 3:30 AM UTC
- Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, California
Game Overview
San Diego State Aztecs (8-2) host San Jose State Spartans (3-7) in a pivotal Mountain West matchup. The Aztecs, with a top-ranked pass defense, face a Spartans team boasting the No. 4 passing attack in college football. San Diego State can clinch a spot in the conference championship with a win, while San Jose State is out of bowl contention. The game is set for Snapdragon Stadium, with national TV coverage on FS1.
Key Factors to Consider
- San Diego State has allowed 10 or fewer points in four of its last five games, with three shutout wins and seven games allowing 10 or fewer points. The Aztecs are 7-1 straight up and 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games. San Jose State has allowed 26 or more points in nine consecutive games, scoring just 13.0 PPG in its last two outings. The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and have lost four of their last five overall.
- San Diego State has won two of the last three meetings, with a 2-1 record against the spread. The Aztecs have outscored the Spartans by 11 points across the last three matchups. The underdog has covered the spread in each of the last four meetings.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game will be played at Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego State's home field, which provides a strong home advantage. Weather conditions are expected to be mild, with no adverse impact anticipated.
- San Diego State is highly motivated to clinch a spot in the Mountain West Conference championship game. San Jose State, eliminated from bowl contention, may lack the same level of motivation, potentially affecting their performance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs: -535, San Jose State Spartans: 400 | San Diego State Aztecs | โ โ โ โ โ 92% |
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs: -12.5 -108, San Jose State Spartans: 12.5 -112 | San Diego State Aztecs -12.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 49.5 -110, Under: 49.5 -110 | Under 49.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 80% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 49.5 34% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 49.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego State is expected to dominate this matchup, leveraging their elite pass defense against a struggling San Jose State offense. The Aztecs are likely to cover the spread and keep the game under the total points line, given their recent defensive form and the Spartans' offensive struggles.
Predicted Score: San Diego State 35, San Jose State 12