Match Analysis: Chris Bungard vs Simone Patrizi – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 10:15 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, England

Game Overview

This is a highly anticipated lightweight bout at Cage Warriors 198 between Scottish veteran Chris Bungard and Italian fan favorite Simone Patrizi. The two fighters were originally scheduled to meet in Newcastle earlier in 2025 but the bout fell through due to weight-cutting issues. Both competitors have significant motivation for this matchup, with Bungard seeking his 30th career victory and Patrizi attempting to stop a recent skid in the stacked Cage Warriors lightweight division.[1][3][4]

Key Factors to Consider

• Chris Bungard holds a strong 21-10 professional record with 5 KO/TKO victories and 11 submission wins, demonstrating a well-rounded skillset with particular strength in submissions. Simone Patrizi carries a 7-4 record with 4 KO/TKO wins and only 1 submission victory, suggesting a more striking-oriented approach. Bungard's superior experience and submission prowess give him a notable edge in overall fight arsenal.[2]
• This will be the first official meeting between these two fighters, though they were previously scheduled to compete in Newcastle. The original cancellation stemmed from weight-cut complications, adding an extra layer of motivation and potential frustration for both competitors heading into this rematch of sorts.[3]
• No current injury information is available for either fighter in the provided search results.
• The bout takes place in Manchester, England, which may provide a slight advantage to Bungard as a British fighter competing in the UK. Patrizi, fighting abroad as an Italian competitor, must contend with travel and potential crowd disadvantage.[3][4]
• Bungard is motivated by the pursuit of his 30th career victory, a significant milestone for the Scottish veteran. Patrizi is dealing with considerable pressure after winning just one of his last four fights and cannot afford another loss if he hopes to remain competitive in the lightweight division.[3]

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Bungard -135 | Patrizi -105	Chris Bungard Victory	★★★☆☆ 68%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chris Bungard -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Chris Bungard at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chris Bungard is favored to win this matchup due to his superior experience, well-rounded skillset with particular submission expertise, and the psychological edge from seeking a career-milestone 30th victory. While Patrizi presents an entertaining striker capable of finishing opponents, his recent form (1-3 in last four) and submission vulnerability (only 1 submission win versus Bungard's 11) suggest Bungard will control the pace and likely secure victory via submission or decision.

Predicted Score: Chris Bungard wins via submission (Round 2) or by decision (29-28 or 30-27) after controlling the fight through superior grappling and positional control. Most likely outcome: Bungard submission victory at 4:15 of Round 2.

Match Analysis: Tim Wilde vs Oscar Ownsworth – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 9:50 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester

Game Overview

Tim Wilde faces Oscar Ownsworth in a highly anticipated lightweight bout at Cage Warriors 198 in Manchester. Both fighters are ranked contenders in the UK MMA scene, with Wilde holding a #10 Lightweight ranking and a more experienced record. The fight is scheduled for three rounds and is expected to be a technical, high-paced matchup with implications for future title contention.

Key Factors to Consider

• Tim Wilde has a 17-7-1 record with a balanced mix of wins (7 KO/TKO, 1 submission, 9 decision). He is known for his durability and adaptability, with only 4 KO/TKO losses. Oscar Ownsworth is 8-4-1, with 3 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission, and 3 decision wins. His losses are split between submissions and decisions, showing vulnerability to grappling and technical fighters.
• No previous fights between Wilde and Ownsworth. This is a fresh matchup with no direct history.
• No reported injuries for either fighter as of the latest updates. Both are expected to be at full strength.
• The fight takes place in Manchester, a home advantage for both UK-based fighters. The event is part of a major Cage Warriors double-header, increasing media attention and pressure.
• Wilde is a veteran looking to solidify his top-10 status and potentially earn a title shot. Ownsworth is younger and may be seeking a breakthrough win over a higher-ranked opponent to boost his profile.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Oscar Ownsworth: -130, Tim Wilde: -110	Tim Wilde	Not available
Spread	Not widely available for MMA, but if offered, likely Wilde -1.5 rounds	Tim Wilde to win by decision or finish	Not available
Over/under	Over/Under 2.5 rounds: Over -120, Under +100	Over	Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Tim Wilde -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Tim Wilde at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Tim Wilde is favored due to his superior experience, higher ranking, and more diverse skill set. He is likely to control the pace and outwork Ownsworth over three rounds, especially if the fight goes to the ground or into a decision. Ownsworth’s best chance is a finish, but his lower finish rate and vulnerability to submissions suggest a lower probability of victory.

Predicted Score: Tim Wilde wins by unanimous decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Match Analysis: Arman Tsarukyan vs Daniel Hooker – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 9:15 PM UTC
• Location: Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena, Al Rayyan, Qatar

Game Overview

The main event of UFC Fight Night 265 features a lightweight bout between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker, two experienced and skilled fighters. Tsarukyan enters with a strong recent winning streak and demonstrated knockout power, while Hooker is a seasoned competitor known for his striking ability and resilience.

Key Factors to Consider

• Arman Tsarukyan has a 22-3 MMA record with a significant reach and strong striking stats (3.79 significant strikes landed per minute with 58.96% accuracy, and 3.25 takedown average with 37.04% success). Dan Hooker holds a 24-12 record, with slightly higher striking volume (5.03 significant strikes per minute) but lower accuracy at 55.67%, along with fewer takedown attempts and lower success (0.73 attempts, 34.38% accuracy). Tsarukyan is younger (29 vs. 35 years old) and more orthodox in style; Hooker is taller and fights with a switch stance.
• There is no known previous fight between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker, making this their first meeting. Both fighters bring distinct styles that have not been directly tested against each other.
• No current injury reports or withdrawals have been reported for either fighter ahead of the matchup, indicating both fighters are expected to compete at full capacity.
• The fight takes place in a neutral venue in Qatar, which should limit any significant home advantage. Both fighters have high motivation due to rankings and career progression, with Tsarukyan explicitly targeting UFC title contention in the future and Hooker looking to maintain relevance in the lightweight division.
• Tsarukyan is pursuing a continued winning streak and potential UFC lightweight title contention, providing strong competitive drive. Hooker, noted for his confrontational personality and rivalry with Tsarukyan, appears motivated to prove himself against younger competition and overcome recent challenges.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	arman_tsarukyan: -600, dan_hooker: 440	Arman Tsarukyan	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	arman_tsarukyan_-13.5: -195, dan_hooker_+13.5: 140	Arman Tsarukyan to win by more than 13.5 points (decisive victory)	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over_3.5: 105, under_3.5: -135	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Arman Tsarukyan -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 3.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Arman Tsarukyan at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Arman Tsarukyan is favored to win given his more consistent recent performances, younger age, physical advantages, and superior defensive abilities that could neutralize Hooker’s high-volume striking.

Predicted Score: Tsarukyan wins by TKO or decision within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Belal Muhammad vs Ian Garry – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 8:15 PM UTC
• Location: Not specified in available data

Game Overview

Belal Muhammad faces Ian Garry in a UFC matchup where Muhammad enters with notable physical disadvantages. Muhammad will be fighting at a 4-inch height disadvantage and a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage against Garry. This is a significant physical mismatch that will heavily influence fight dynamics, striking exchanges, and clinch control. The odds heavily favor Garry, reflecting both his physical advantages and likely superior striking range and defensive capabilities.

Key Factors to Consider

• Current form and recent fight results for both fighters are not available in the provided data. Historical win-loss records and recent performance trends would be critical to assess momentum and conditioning levels.
• No previous matchup history between Belal Muhammad and Ian Garry is available in the provided data. This appears to be their first encounter.
• No injury information is available for either fighter at this time.
• The significant physical disadvantage (4 inches in height, 2.5 inches in reach) for Belal Muhammad is the primary external factor. This could impact his ability to establish distance, defend takedowns effectively, and control the fight's range.
• Specific motivation factors are not available in the provided data. However, Belal Muhammad may be motivated to overcome the physical disadvantage, while Garry would be seeking to capitalize on his significant reach and height advantages.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Belal Muhammad +220 / Ian Garry -270	Ian Garry victory	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Belal Muhammad +3.5 (-135) / Ian Garry -3.5 (100)	Ian Garry wins by more than 3.5 rounds (or Belal Muhammad loses by 3.5 or fewer rounds)	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (-315) / Under 2.5 (230)	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ian Garry 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 151%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 151% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 65.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ian Garry is the strong favorite with a -270 moneyline. The physical advantages and betting odds suggest Garry should control the fight, particularly in striking exchanges where his reach advantage is most pronounced. However, Muhammad's willingness to fight at a disadvantage and potential grappling or clinch-oriented strategy could provide paths to competitive rounds or an upset victory.

Predicted Score: Ian Garry wins by decision or submission, likely in rounds 2-3. Estimated 29-28 or 30-27 scorecard in Garry's favor if going to decision, reflecting his physical advantages in striking and range control. Potential for early finish (Rounds 1-2) given the significant reach disparity favoring Garry.

Match Analysis: Chris Price vs Artūrs Leisāns – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 8:10 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, England

Game Overview

Chris Price faces Artūrs Leisāns in a lightweight bout at Cage Warriors 198, scheduled for November 22, 2025, at the BEC Arena in Manchester. Both fighters are experienced in the division, with Price holding a 6-1 record and Leisāns at 9-9-1. The fight is part of the Cage Warriors Fighting Championship (CWFC) and is expected to be a competitive matchup, with Price favored by the bookmakers.

Key Factors to Consider

• Chris Price has a strong recent form, with a record of 6 wins and 1 loss, including 1 KO/TKO and 4 submission victories. Artūrs Leisāns has a more balanced record of 9 wins, 9 losses, and 1 draw, with 7 KO/TKO wins, 1 submission, and 1 decision win. Price's recent winning streak and higher submission rate suggest he may have an edge in grappling and finishing fights.
• There is no prior head-to-head record between Chris Price and Artūrs Leisāns, making this a fresh matchup with no direct history to analyze.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the event.
• The fight takes place at the BEC Arena in Manchester, which is Price's home turf, potentially providing a home advantage. The event is part of Cage Warriors 198, a well-known MMA promotion, and is expected to draw a significant crowd.
• Both fighters are motivated to bounce back from recent setbacks. Price is looking to extend his winning streak, while Leisāns aims to recover from a series of losses and draws.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Artūrs Leisāns: 275, Chris Price: -450	Chris Price	Not available

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chris Price -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Chris Price at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Chris Price is favored to win this bout due to his recent form, higher submission rate, and home advantage. However, Artūrs Leisāns has a strong record and could pose a significant challenge, especially if the fight goes to a decision.

Predicted Score: Chris Price wins by submission in the second round

Match Analysis: Volkan Oezdemir vs Alonzo Menifield – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 7:45 PM UTC
• Location: ABHA Arena, Saudi Arabia (UFC Qatar)

Game Overview

UFC Fight Night 265 features a Light Heavyweight division matchup between Swiss veteran Volkan Oezdemir (20-8 MMA, 8-7 UFC) and American contender Alonzo Menifield (17-5-1 MMA, 12-5-1 UFC). This is Oezdemir's return to competition after nearly one year away following a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Ulberg. Menifield has remained active with recent wins, creating an interesting dynamic between ring rust concerns and momentum. Both fighters are considered accomplished strikers, though Oezdemir enters as the technical favorite with superior striking volume and grappling credentials.

Key Factors to Consider

• Oezdemir has won 3 of his last 5 fights but suffered a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Ulberg approximately one year ago. Over his last 6 UFC fights, he compiled a 3-3 record. Menifield demonstrates superior recent form with a 4-2 record over his last 6 UFC fights and has proven he can go the distance in recent victories. Menifield is 3-2 in his last 5 fights overall and has already competed twice in 2025, showing active competition schedule. Oezdemir's finish rate is exceptional: 15 of his 20 wins came via stoppage, indicating strong knockout power and technical striking advantage.
• No prior UFC or MMA history exists between these fighters. However, comparative striking metrics reveal Oezdemir averages 4.95 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy, while Menifield averages 3.79 significant strikes per minute with 53% accuracy. Defensively, Menifield absorbs less damage (3.76 strikes per minute vs. Oezdemir's 4.22), suggesting a more defensive fighting approach. Both fighters average 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes with comparable grappling defense around 78-80%, indicating evenly matched wrestling.
• No injuries or health concerns reported for either fighter. Both are cleared to compete.
• The fight takes place in ABHA Arena, Saudi Arabia, which may affect Oezdemir more given his European base and year-long layoff. Menifield has demonstrated comfort competing in various locations with active recent schedule. Ring rust is a significant consideration for Oezdemir, as extended layoffs typically impact timing, footwork, and fight rhythm.
• Oezdemir is motivated to make a statement after his layoff and eyes a potential title shot if victorious, with aspirations to face Jamahal Hill next. He expressed confidence in outclassing Menifield and believes there are 'levels' to the division. Menifield seeks to upset the favored veteran and establish himself as a legitimate contender. Oezdemir's pre-fight comments suggest confidence in a first-round finish, while his prediction of a 'banger' indicates he expects an exciting, technical striking exchange.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Oezdemir -225 | Menifield +185	Alonzo Menifield Moneyline	★★★☆☆ 58%
Spread	Oezdemir -7.5 (-115) | Menifield +7.5 (-115)	Alonzo Menifield +7.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (+120) | Under 2.5 (-154)	Under 2.5 Rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Volkan Oezdemir 97%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Volkan Oezdemir at 97% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 52.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Alonzo Menifield represents compelling value as an underdog upset pick. Despite Oezdemir's technical superiority and knockout power, multiple analytical factors favor Menifield: (1) Superior recent form (4-2 vs. 3-3 in last 6 fights), (2) Active competition schedule reducing ring rust concerns, (3) Demonstrably less damage absorption indicating superior defensive positioning, (4) Oezdemir's year-long layoff creating timing and rhythm concerns, (5) Menifield's proven ability to go the distance in recent victories. While Oezdemir possesses higher technical striking volume and finishing rate, Menifield's defensive acumen, recent momentum, and conditioning advantage from active competition create a favorable matchup despite unfavorable odds. The spread of 7.5 rounds appears inflated given Menifield's demonstrated durability and recent competitive success.

Predicted Score: Alonzo Menifield via Decision (Unanimous or Split) or Late-Round Finish. Primary prediction favors Menifield winning by judges' decision in the 3rd round after a competitive striking exchange. Secondary scenario: Oezdemir's superior striking catches Menifield late in Round 2 or early Round 3 for a knockout finish. Over 2.5 rounds slightly favored due to both fighters' demonstrated striking exchanges and Menifield's defensive approach extending fight duration beyond Oezdemir's preferred quick finish.

Match Analysis: Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 7:15 PM UTC
• Location: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar

Game Overview

UFC Fight Night 265 welterweight matchup featuring Jack Hermansson (24-9 MMA record, 11-7 UFC) moving down from middleweight to face rising prospect Myktybek Orolbai (14-2-1 MMA record, 3-1 UFC). This marks Hermansson's divisional debut at 170 lbs after spending his UFC career at middleweight. Orolbai enters as the significant favorite with elite grappling credentials, while Hermansson brings superior striking and submission expertise.

Key Factors to Consider

• Hermansson has shown inconsistency recently, posting a 4-5 record in his last 9 UFC fights. He averages 5.13 significant strikes per minute with 45% accuracy and absorbs 3.70 strikes per minute with 57% striking defense. His grappling is solid with 1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes but only 29% takedown accuracy and 80% takedown defense. Orolbai demonstrates elite wrestling with 5.82 takedowns per 15 minutes and 45% takedown accuracy, though his striking defense is weaker at 50%. He averages 3.11 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy while absorbing 3.08 strikes per minute.
• No prior matchup history. This represents their first encounter. Hermansson's 6'1" frame with 77" wingspan provides a natural size advantage over Orolbai's 5'10" build, though both compete at 170 lbs. Orolbai's takedown threat (45% accuracy, 40% defense) directly counters Hermansson's preferred submission game.
• No injury information available in current reports. Both fighters appear healthy for competition.
• Hermansson is transitioning down a weight class seeking a fresh start, potentially adjusting to new competition level. Orolbai is competing at home in Qatar as a rising prospect. Venue is neutral ABHA Arena in Doha.
• Hermansson is motivated by divisional debut and opportunity to rebuild momentum after recent UFC struggles. Orolbai is motivated to maintain undefeated UFC record (3-1) and establish himself as legitimate welterweight contender against established opponent.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Hermansson +200 | Orolbai -245	Myktybek Orolbai Win	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Hermansson +3.5 (-105) | Orolbai -3.5 (-130)	Orolbai -3.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (-175) | Under 2.5 (+135)	Under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Myktybek Orolbai -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 36%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 36% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.9% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Myktybek Orolbai is favored to win this matchup. While Hermansson possesses superior striking and submission credentials, Orolbai's elite grappling and takedown accuracy create significant problems. Orolbai's 45% takedown accuracy versus Hermansson's 80% defense suggests Orolbai will successfully implement his wrestling game, accumulating control time and positional damage. Hermansson's recent inconsistency (4-5 in last 9) combined with the divisional adjustment and stylistic matchup disadvantage favors Orolbai. Prediction: Orolbai via submission or decision.

Predicted Score: Myktybek Orolbai wins via submission (Rd 2) or Decision (29-28, 30-27, 29-28). Expected fight duration approximately 13-15 minutes based on Orolbai's average fight time of 10:57 and Hermansson's 11:09, suggesting extended control wrestling exchanges. Most likely outcome: Orolbai secures takedown control in rounds 1-2, either submits Hermansson or wins decisively via grappling advantage and cage control.

Match Analysis: Ryan Hewitt vs Matthew Friel – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 6:30 PM UTC
• Location: BEC, Manchester

Game Overview

Ryan Hewitt faces Matthew Friel in a flyweight bout at Cage Warriors 198 in Manchester. Both fighters are looking to improve their records, with Hewitt favored by the bookmakers. The fight is scheduled for three rounds and is part of the preliminary card.

Key Factors to Consider

• Ryan Hewitt has a record of 1-2, with his only win coming by submission. Matthew Friel has a record of 2-3, with both wins by KO/TKO. Friel has shown more striking power, while Hewitt has a submission win and more decision losses.
• This is the first meeting between Ryan Hewitt and Matthew Friel. There is no previous history between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this bout.
• The fight takes place in Manchester, which may provide a slight home advantage for Hewitt, who is from the United Kingdom. The event is part of a double-header, which could affect fighter preparation and focus.
• Both fighters are looking to rebound from recent losses and improve their standing in the flyweight division. Hewitt will be motivated to secure a win in front of a home crowd, while Friel will be eager to prove himself against a local favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Matthew Friel: 150, Ryan Hewitt: -200	Ryan Hewitt	Not available
Over/under	Over/Under 2.5 rounds	Under 2.5 rounds	Not available

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ryan Hewitt 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ryan Hewitt at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ryan Hewitt is favored to win this bout, with odds of -200. His submission win and home advantage give him an edge, but Friel's striking power could pose a threat. The most likely outcome is a decision win for Hewitt, but a knockout by Friel is possible if he can land early.

Predicted Score: Ryan Hewitt wins by decision

Match Analysis: Alex Perez vs Asu Almabaev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: November 22, 2025
• Time: 6:15 PM UTC
• Location: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar

Game Overview

Alex Perez (#8 ranked flyweight) returns from injury to face Kazakhstan's Asu Almabayev (#9 ranked flyweight) in a featured UFC Qatar main card bout. This is a critical matchup for both fighters, with Perez looking to reassert himself after his layoff while Almabayev seeks to solidify his ranking. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds in the flyweight division (125 lbs).

Key Factors to Consider

• Alex Perez (25-9 UFC record, 7-5 in UFC) returns after an injury absence with solid technical striking fundamentals. He lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute with 46% accuracy but absorbs 3.20 significant strikes per minute while defending 58% of incoming strikes. Asu Almabayev (22-3 overall, 5-1 UFC) is a powerful wrestler with methodical control who lands 2.16 significant strikes per minute but connects at 54% accuracy. He absorbs only 1.75 significant strikes per minute while defending 52% of incoming strikes. Almabayev is converting 43% of his takedown attempts with 50% takedown defense.
• Perez has a significant striking volume advantage (4.19 vs 2.16 strikes per minute), making him the more active striker. However, Almabayev's accuracy (54% vs 46%) and lower strike absorption (1.75 vs 3.20) suggest superior striking defense and efficiency.
• Almabayev is the clear grappling specialist. He attempts more submissions (1.5 per 3 rounds vs Perez's 0.8 per 15 minutes) and actively pursues takedowns at a high rate (43% conversion). Perez must maintain his distance and utilize striking to avoid wrestling exchanges.
• Perez's return from injury could present cardio and ring rust concerns, though his determination to make a statement suggests proper preparation. This is a significant test of his conditioning and durability.
• Both fighters have motivation to climb the rankings. Perez needs a dominant comeback win, while Almabayev seeks to establish himself among top contenders.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Perez +170 | Almabayev -205	Asu Almabayev wins	★★★☆☆ 62%
Spread	Perez +3.5 (-150) | Almabayev -3.5 (110)	Almabayev -3.5	★★★☆☆ 58%
Over/under	Over 2.5 (-200) | Under 2.5 (154)	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 64%

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Draw -100%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 57%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 57% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Asu Almabayev is favored to win this matchup. While Alex Perez possesses superior striking volume and technical variety, Almabayev's grappling dominance, lower strike absorption rate, and defensive efficiency create a suffocating game plan. If Almabayev can successfully implement his wrestling pressure and control the pace on the ground, he can neutralize Perez's striking advantages. However, Perez's comeback narrative and elevated striking output could lead to a competitive fight that goes the distance.

Predicted Score: Asu Almabayev via submission (Rear-Naked Choke or Guillotine) in Round 2 (approximately 3:45 mark) OR Almabayev via Unanimous Decision (29-28 across all three judges). Most likely outcome: Almabayev wins by submission Round 2 (45% confidence) or decision (35% confidence). Perez knockout/submission win (20% confidence).