Match Analysis: Maryland Terrapins vs Michigan Wolverines – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: SECU Stadium, College Park, Maryland
Game Overview
The No. 18 Michigan Wolverines (8-2) face off against their Big Ten rival, the Maryland Terrapins (4-6), in a crucial late-season matchup. Michigan enters as substantial favorites, while Maryland desperately needs a win to keep bowl eligibility hopes alive. The Wolverines have established themselves as a top-20 program despite recent struggles covering double-digit spreads, while the Terrapins are seeking to break a six-game losing streak at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Michigan enters the matchup with an 8-2 record but has failed to cover the spread in three consecutive games despite winning their last two outings narrowly against Purdue and Northwestern. The Wolverines rank 91st in plays per second, employing a methodical, run-heavy offensive approach with a top-20 rushing play percentage in FBS. Maryland, at 4-6, has lost six straight games entering this contest, though notably half of their losses have come in one-possession games. Maryland's defense ranks 43rd in net points per drive allowed, showing reasonable defensive capability despite offensive struggles. Maryland has posted a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five games and maintain a 3-3 home ATS record for the season.
- As Big Ten rivals, this represents a conference matchup with significant playoff and bowl implications. No specific head-to-head historical data is provided in available sources, but the current disparity in records and rankings heavily favors Michigan.
- No specific injury information is provided in the available search results.
- Weather conditions at SECU Stadium show 53ยฐFahrenheit with 0% rain probability and minimal wind, creating neutral playing conditions. Michigan's recent turnover issues from QB Bryce Underwood could be problematic against Maryland's 12th-ranked FBS turnover margin. Michigan's offense is not built for explosive plays, instead relying on grinding, methodical drives, which could contribute to lower-scoring affairs. Maryland's recent schedule has featured high-powered offensive units like Indiana and Illinois, suggesting their defense has been tested by elite competition.
- Maryland faces significant motivation to secure a win and maintain bowl eligibility with limited games remaining in the regular season. Michigan, despite their ranking, needs to prove they can cover double-digit spreads after three consecutive failures to do so. Both teams are approaching the critical final weeks of the regular season where conference championship and postseason positioning becomes paramount.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan -535 | Maryland +400 | Michigan Wolverines ML | โ โ โ โ โ 78% |
| Spread | Michigan -14 (-105) | Maryland +14 (-115) | Maryland +14 (-115) | โ โ โ โโ 64% |
| Over/under | Over 46.5 (-105) | Under 46.5 (-115) | Under 46.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 46.5 8% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Under 46.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Michigan will defeat Maryland convincingly, though the margin may be tighter than the spread suggests. While Michigan is clearly the superior team, their recent inability to cover double-digit spreads combined with Maryland's improved ATS performance and respectable defensive ranking creates value on the Maryland cover. Expect a methodical Michigan offensive approach that keeps the game in the under range.
Predicted Score: Michigan 24, Maryland 13 (Michigan wins by 11, covering at -14 with difficulty)