Match Analysis: Miami Marlins vs New York Mets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 7:11 PM UTC
- Location: Miami Marlins home stadium
Game Overview
The New York Mets host the Miami Marlins in the regular season finale, with Mets needing a win to keep playoff hopes alive. Mets are slight favorites on the moneyline and have the advantage on the spread, facing a Marlins team with a below .500 record and pitching struggles.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mets hold a record of 83-78, coming off a 5-0 victory in the previous game. Marlins are 78-83 and have struggled with consistency, losing 4 of 5 recent games. Mets show more recent offensive prowess especially from key hitter Juan Soto.
- Mets have dominated the recent series, including a strong win last game. Marlins' starting pitcher Edward Cabrera has had trouble containing Mets hitters like Juan Soto.
- No significant injury concerns reported for either team that would impact starting roles or key hitters.
- Late September weather in Miami is typically warm and humid, mildly favoring hitters. Game is a regular season finale with playoff implications for Mets.
- Mets have very high motivation as they must win to stay in playoff contention. Marlins are out of contention and less motivated.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Miami Marlins: +110, New York Mets: -130 | New York Mets | β β β β β 78% |
Spread | Miami Marlins +1.5: -154, New York Mets -1.5: +128 | New York Mets -1.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Over/under | Over 8: -122, Under 8: +100 | Under 8 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Mets -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8 20% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
New York Mets to win outright, cover the -1.5 spread, and the game to go under 8 total runs.
Predicted Score: New York Mets 4 – Miami Marlins 2