Match Analysis: Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 7:11 PM UTC
- Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee
Game Overview
The Cincinnati Reds visit the Milwaukee Brewers in a decisive final regular season game with the Reds requiring a win to clinch a playoff spot outright. Milwaukee is coming off a solid season with a 96-65 record and a strong home performance, while Cincinnati at 83-78 fought hard to keep playoff hopes alive with a recent victory over the Brewers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Milwaukee Brewers have been strong at home with a 51-29 record and Freddy Peralta posting a 17-6 record with a 2.68 ERA. Cincinnati Reds have an 83-78 overall record, showing resilience and motivation with a recent 7-4 win over Milwaukee to keep their playoff hopes alive.
- In recent head-to-head matchups including the last three games, Reds have taken two wins at Milwaukee, including a 7-4 win in the last game, showing they can compete effectively in this ballpark under pressure.
- No significant injury reports impacting starting pitchers or key offensive players for either squad are noted for this game.
- The game is played indoors at Milwaukeeβs domed American Family Field, eliminating weather variables. The playoff implication adds intensity and pressure, especially for Cincinnati who must win.
- Cincinnati Reds have high stakes with a win guaranteeing a playoff berth and a sweep. Milwaukee Brewers have already secured playoffs but may rest some players or show less urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | CIN +124, MIL -146 | Milwaukee Brewers | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | CIN +1.5 -156, MIL -1.5 +130 | Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 -115, Under 7.5 -105 | Under 7.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Milwaukee Brewers -1% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline, Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 spread, Under 7.5 runs
Predicted Score: Milwaukee Brewers 4 – Cincinnati Reds 2