Match Analysis: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Kentucky Wildcats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Vanderbilt home stadium (exact venue not specified)
Game Overview
The Vanderbilt Commodores (8-2, 4-2 SEC) face the Kentucky Wildcats (5-5, 2-5 SEC) on November 22, 2025, in a key SEC matchup. Vanderbilt is enjoying a strong season with their first 8-win mark since 2013, supported by a historic offensive performance led by quarterback Diego Pavia. Kentucky holds a recent disadvantage in the head-to-head record but remains competitive.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vanderbilt boasts outstanding offensive stats, ranking 8th nationally in scoring offense at 38.3 PPG, with strong third down conversions and passing efficiency in the SEC. Kentucky averages 20.8 points in recent games with a 60% ATS win rate but struggles to match Vanderbilt's scoring prowess.
- Since 2000, Kentucky leads 16-9 in head-to-head games but Vanderbilt holds a slight recent edge, winning 2 of the last 3 matchups. Vanderbilt averages 23.0 PPG vs. Kentucky's 26.5 PPG in these encounters. Overall historical series favors Kentucky narrowly (48-44-4).
- No specific injury information available from current data; assume standard squad availability unless updated closer to game day.
- Vanderbilt has demonstrated momentum with three consecutive home wins and a powerful offensive system. The Wildcats face an away game challenge against a surging Vanderbilt squad known for points per drive and explosive plays.
- Vanderbilt is motivated to cement a historic winning season and home dominance against a rival Kentucky team that is struggling with a losing record, adding urgency to Kentuckyโs effort to avoid a disappointing conclusion to their season.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats: 295, Vanderbilt Commodores: -375 | Vanderbilt Commodores win | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats: -108, Vanderbilt Commodores: -112 | Vanderbilt -9.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 82% |
| Over/under | Over: -112, Under: -108 | Over 52.5 | โ โ โ โ โ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 52.5 23% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 52.5 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vanderbilt Commodores are favored to win by a significant margin due to superior offensive performance, home advantage, and recent form. Kentucky may keep it competitive but likely fall short against Vanderbilt's high-scoring offense.
Predicted Score: Vanderbilt Commodores 38 – 24 Kentucky Wildcats