Match Analysis: Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan State Spartans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 22, 2025
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, Iowa
Game Overview
The Iowa Hawkeyes (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) host the struggling Michigan State Spartans (3-7, 0-7 Big Ten) in a Big Ten conference matchup. Iowa enters as heavy favorites with a 16.5-point spread, while Michigan State is searching for their first conference win of the season after losing seven consecutive games. This matchup features a stark contrast in team trajectories, with Iowa's improving offense facing a Michigan State defense ranked poorly across most statistical categories.
Key Factors to Consider
- Iowa's offense has transformed in 2025, ranking 18th in EPA/rush and rushing success rate with an elite running game that has scored 34+ points in half of their games this season. The Hawkeyes average 28.7 points per game (63rd in FBS) while allowing only 14.9 points per game (9th in FBS). Michigan State's defense has been particularly vulnerable, ranking 97th in EPA/rush, 93rd in red zone defense, 110th in points per quality drive allowed, and 112th in net points per drive allowed. The Spartans average 24.0 points per game (95th in FBS) while allowing 31.1 points per game (109th in FBS). Michigan State's offense has shown slight improvement since Alessio Milivojevic took over at quarterback.
- Historical head-to-head data is not available in the provided sources. However, Iowa's recent performance demonstrates clear superiority in both offensive and defensive metrics compared to Michigan State's statistically weak defensive unit.
- No specific injury information is provided in available sources.
- This game is played at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa, providing the Hawkeyes with strong home-field advantage. Iowa's defense ranks 9th nationally in points allowed, which should significantly impact Michigan State's offensive production.
- Iowa is motivated to maintain momentum and improve their bowl positioning with two weeks remaining in the regular season. Michigan State is desperate to avoid winless conference play and secure their first Big Ten victory.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa: -950 | Michigan State: +640 | Iowa Hawkeyes Victory | โ โ โ โ โ 90% |
| Spread | Iowa: -16.5 (-115) | Michigan State: +16.5 (-105) | Iowa Hawkeyes -16.5 (Cover the Spread) | โ โ โ โ โ 78% |
| Over/under | Over: 42.5 (-108) | Under: 42.5 (-112) | Over 42.5 Points | โ โ โ โ โ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 42.5 8% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 42.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Iowa Hawkeyes are predicted to win decisively. The Hawkeyes' elite defense combined with their improved rushing attack should dominate Michigan State's vulnerable defensive unit. Iowa's home-field advantage and superior team composition make them overwhelming favorites in this matchup.
Predicted Score: Iowa 31, Michigan State 14