Match Analysis: UAB Blazers vs South Florida Bulls – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: UAB Home Stadium (assumed, as UAB is home team)
Game Overview
The upcoming NCAA football game features the UAB Blazers hosting the South Florida Bulls. South Florida enters the game with a stronger record (7-3 overall, 4-2 conference) compared to UAB (3-7 overall, 1-5 conference). Offensively, South Florida ranks 5th nationally with 41.6 points per game, while UAB ranks 74th at 26.8 PPG. Defensively, South Florida is better positioned (77th in points allowed) compared to UAB (134th). The historical head-to-head matchup shows a relatively balanced competition with a 2-2 series record, but South Florida has recently been favored and has a strong win probability according to current odds.
Key Factors to Consider
- South Florida has demonstrated a significantly stronger offense and better defense this season compared to UAB. South Florida's turnover margin is also markedly better, with 20 turnovers forced vs. UABโs 5, which will be critical. UAB has struggled against the spread (3-7) while South Florida's ATS record is better at 6-4. Recent results show South Floridaโs offense outscoring UAB by a solid margin.
- The teams have split the last two head-to-head meetings 1-1, with UAB covering the spread twice in those games. South Florida won most recent games convincingly, including a 35-25 home win in 2024 and a large 56-35 win in 2023. Total points in recent contests are high, averaging around 69.5.
- No specific injury data is currently available from the searched sources for either team, suggesting no major publicized absences going into the game.
- UAB is playing at home, which might offer some advantage, but their poorer overall form and inferior stats suggest this will be limited against a dominant South Florida team. No unusual weather or external conditions reported that would impact game flow significantly.
- South Florida is motivated to maintain a strong bowl eligibility record and improve conference standing, while UAB, with a losing record and minimal chance for postseason, may lack motivation. South Floridaโs recent dominance and superior odds imply higher confidence in their performance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls: -2200, UAB Blazers: 1100 | South Florida Bulls Win | โ โ โ โ โ 95% |
| Spread | South Florida Bulls: -21.5 -110, UAB Blazers: 21.5 -110 | South Florida Bulls to cover the -21.5 spread | โ โ โ โ โ 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 69.5 -110, Under: 69.5 -110 | Over 69.5 points total | โ โ โ โ โ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 69.5 43% |
๐ฅ Best Value Pick: Over 69.5 at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
South Florida Bulls are heavily favored to win given their superior offensive and defensive metrics, better turnover numbers, and strong ATS record this season. The moneyline odds reflect this dominance, with South Florida as a heavy favorite.
Predicted Score: South Florida Bulls 46 – UAB Blazers 24